Target Price Playground
VRTX
$558.88
🟢
VRTX IV: 36.1% — LOW
(-55.0% vs 30d avg of 80.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $600 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
🎯 Target
48d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $558.88 · Δ 1.00
SHORT CALL · $600 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $13.16 · Δ 0.31
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If VRTX hits $600 by Dec 18: the covered call returns +$5,428 (9.9%) on $54,572 risked, vs +$4,112 (7.4%) for 100 shares on $55,888. Options give 1.3× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if VRTX is at $600. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if VRTX hits $600 by Dec 18
+$5,428
+9.9% on $54,572 risked
Max Profit
+$5,428
If the stock ≥ $600 at expiry
Max Loss
−$54,572
If stock → $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$545.72
-2.35% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
57%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
69.38 / 28.59 / -74.43
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| VRTX Price | Today | Nov 16 | Dec 2 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $447 (-20%) | -$9,895 | -$9,868 | -$9,862 | -$9,862 |
| $475 (-15%) | -$7,182 | -$7,099 | -$7,068 | -$7,067 |
| $503 (-10%) | -$4,596 | -$4,404 | -$4,288 | -$4,273 |
| $531 (-5%) | -$2,230 | -$1,883 | -$1,578 | -$1,478 |
| $548 (-2%) | -$957 | -$513 | -$54 | +$198 |
| $559 (0%) ← spot | -$181 | +$323 | +$889 | +$1,316 |
| $570 (+2%) | +$534 | +$1,088 | +$1,751 | +$2,434 |
| $587 (+5%) | +$1,484 | +$2,093 | +$2,861 | +$4,110 |
| $600 (+7%) ← target | +$2,129 | +$2,759 | +$3,563 | +$5,428 |
| $615 (+10%) | +$2,749 | +$3,378 | +$4,171 | +$5,428 |
| $643 (+15%) | +$3,645 | +$4,216 | +$4,871 | +$5,428 |
| $671 (+20%) | +$4,240 | +$4,710 | +$5,170 | +$5,428 |
Uses VRTX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.