Target Price Playground
VRTX
$558.88
🟢
VRTX IV: 36.1% — LOW
(-55.0% vs 30d avg of 80.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $530 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy a longer-dated put, sell a shorter-dated OTM put. Profits from time decay + a moderate drop.
🎯 Target
48d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG PUT · $560 · Jan '27
Qty 1 · Premium $34.0 · Δ -0.5
SHORT PUT · $530 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $20.0 · Δ -0.33
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Diagonal Put Spread
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If VRTX hits $530 by Dec 18: the diagonal put spread returns +$2,184 (156.0%) on $1,400 risked, vs $-2,888 (-5.2%) for 100 shares on $55,888. Options give 30.0× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if VRTX is at $530. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if VRTX hits $530 by Dec 18
+$2,184
+156.0% on $1,400 risked
Max Profit
+$2,171
If the stock price is favorable
Max Loss
−$1,399
Worst-case within chart range
Break-even
$569.58
+1.92% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
69%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
-16.69 / 5.24 / 23.78
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| VRTX Price | Today | Nov 16 | Dec 2 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $447 (-20%) | +$1,437 | +$1,481 | +$1,484 | +$1,430 |
| $475 (-15%) | +$1,376 | +$1,482 | +$1,581 | +$1,523 |
| $503 (-10%) | +$1,207 | +$1,360 | +$1,589 | +$1,815 |
| $530 (-5%) ← target | +$930 | +$1,075 | +$1,329 | +$2,453 |
| $548 (-2%) | +$698 | +$806 | +$992 | +$1,359 |
| $559 (0%) ← spot | +$537 | +$613 | +$732 | +$784 |
| $570 (+2%) | +$371 | +$411 | +$455 | +$298 |
| $587 (+5%) | +$119 | +$104 | +$43 | -$276 |
| $615 (+10%) | -$279 | -$368 | -$540 | -$884 |
| $643 (+15%) | -$618 | -$743 | -$936 | -$1,188 |
| $671 (+20%) | -$881 | -$1,008 | -$1,169 | -$1,321 |
Uses VRTX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.