Target Price Playground
VRTX
$558.88
🟢
VRTX IV: 36.1% — LOW
(-55.0% vs 30d avg of 80.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $630 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bullish. Unlimited upside, capped loss = premium paid.
🎯 Target
48d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG CALL · $560 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $28.36 · Δ 0.5
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Call
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If VRTX hits $630 by Dec 18: the long call returns +$4,164 (146.8%) on $2,836 risked, vs +$7,112 (12.7%) for 100 shares on $55,888. Options give 11.6× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if VRTX is at $630. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if VRTX hits $630 by Dec 18
+$4,164
+146.8% on $2,836 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside
Max Loss
−$2,836
Premium paid
Break-even
$588.36
+5.27% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
33%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
50.41 / -34.71 / 80.51
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| VRTX Price | Today | Nov 16 | Dec 2 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $447 (-20%) | -$2,710 | -$2,799 | -$2,834 | -$2,836 |
| $475 (-15%) | -$2,469 | -$2,677 | -$2,814 | -$2,836 |
| $503 (-10%) | -$1,969 | -$2,337 | -$2,688 | -$2,836 |
| $531 (-5%) | -$1,105 | -$1,618 | -$2,228 | -$2,836 |
| $548 (-2%) | -$385 | -$953 | -$1,670 | -$2,836 |
| $559 (0%) ← spot | +$182 | -$404 | -$1,154 | -$2,836 |
| $570 (+2%) | +$817 | +$228 | -$520 | -$1,830 |
| $587 (+5%) | +$1,889 | +$1,321 | +$632 | -$154 |
| $615 (+10%) | +$3,958 | +$3,476 | +$2,969 | +$2,641 |
| $630 (+13%) ← target | +$5,208 | +$4,785 | +$4,382 | +$4,164 |
| $643 (+15%) | +$6,303 | +$5,930 | +$5,602 | +$5,435 |
| $671 (+20%) | +$8,838 | +$8,562 | +$8,352 | +$8,230 |
Uses VRTX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.