Target Price Playground
VRTX
$558.88
🟢
VRTX IV: 36.1% — LOW
(-55.0% vs 30d avg of 80.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $490 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bearish. Max profit if underlying crashes, capped loss.
🎯 Target
48d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG PUT · $560 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $27.62 · Δ -0.52
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Put
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If VRTX hits $490 by Dec 18: the long put returns +$4,238 (153.4%) on $2,762 risked, vs $-6,888 (-12.3%) for 100 shares on $55,888. Options give 12.5× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if VRTX is at $490. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if VRTX hits $490 by Dec 18
+$4,238
+153.4% on $2,762 risked
Max Profit
+$53,238
If stock → $0
Max Loss
−$2,762
Premium paid
Break-even
$532.38
-4.74% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
35%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
-51.52 / -22.34 / 80.61
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| VRTX Price | Today | Nov 16 | Dec 2 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $447 (-20%) | +$8,324 | +$8,345 | +$8,419 | +$8,528 |
| $475 (-15%) | +$5,769 | +$5,672 | +$5,644 | +$5,733 |
| $490 (-12%) ← target | +$4,502 | +$4,322 | +$4,193 | +$4,238 |
| $503 (-10%) | +$3,475 | +$3,218 | +$2,977 | +$2,939 |
| $531 (-5%) | +$1,544 | +$1,141 | +$641 | +$144 |
| $548 (-2%) | +$588 | +$130 | -$477 | -$1,532 |
| $559 (0%) ← spot | +$38 | -$439 | -$1,078 | -$2,650 |
| $570 (+2%) | -$445 | -$925 | -$1,563 | -$2,762 |
| $587 (+5%) | -$1,049 | -$1,507 | -$2,086 | -$2,762 |
| $615 (+10%) | -$1,775 | -$2,147 | -$2,544 | -$2,762 |
| $643 (+15%) | -$2,225 | -$2,488 | -$2,705 | -$2,762 |
| $671 (+20%) | -$2,485 | -$2,650 | -$2,750 | -$2,762 |
Uses VRTX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.