Target Price Playground
VRTX
$558.88
🟢
VRTX IV: 36.1% — LOW
(-55.0% vs 30d avg of 80.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $610 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
🎯 Target
48d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $558.88 · Δ 1.00
LONG PUT · $530 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $20.0 · Δ -0.33
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If VRTX hits $610 by Dec 18: the protective put returns +$3,112 (5.4%) on $57,888 risked, vs +$5,112 (9.1%) for 100 shares on $55,888. Options give 0.6× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if VRTX is at $610. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if VRTX hits $610 by Dec 18
+$3,112
+5.4% on $57,888 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
−$4,888
Put floors you at $530
Break-even
$578.88
+3.58% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
48%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
67.09 / -23.01 / 76.96
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| VRTX Price | Today | Nov 16 | Dec 2 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $447 (-20%) | -$4,884 | -$4,963 | -$4,976 | -$4,888 |
| $475 (-15%) | -$4,404 | -$4,642 | -$4,861 | -$4,888 |
| $503 (-10%) | -$3,544 | -$3,927 | -$4,404 | -$4,888 |
| $531 (-5%) | -$2,236 | -$2,688 | -$3,296 | -$4,794 |
| $548 (-2%) | -$1,237 | -$1,683 | -$2,265 | -$3,118 |
| $559 (0%) ← spot | -$488 | -$913 | -$1,442 | -$2,000 |
| $570 (+2%) | +$320 | -$73 | -$531 | -$882 |
| $587 (+5%) | +$1,630 | +$1,297 | +$957 | +$794 |
| $610 (+9%) ← target | +$3,600 | +$3,358 | +$3,161 | +$3,112 |
| $643 (+15%) | +$6,596 | +$6,463 | +$6,390 | +$6,383 |
| $671 (+20%) | +$9,277 | +$9,206 | +$9,179 | +$9,178 |
Uses VRTX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.