Target Price Playground
VRTX
$558.88
🟢
VRTX IV: 36.1% — LOW
(-55.0% vs 30d avg of 80.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $640 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bet on big move in either direction. Two premiums paid.
🎯 Target
48d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG CALL · $560 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $28.36 · Δ 0.5
LONG PUT · $560 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $27.62 · Δ -0.52
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Straddle
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If VRTX hits $640 by Dec 18: the long straddle returns +$2,402 (42.9%) on $5,598 risked, vs +$8,112 (14.5%) for 100 shares on $55,888. Options give 3.0× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if VRTX is at $640. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if VRTX hits $640 by Dec 18
+$2,402
+42.9% on $5,598 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited on a big move
Max Loss
−$5,598
Both premiums paid
Break-even
$504.02
-9.82% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
27%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
-1.11 / -57.05 / 161.13
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| VRTX Price | Today | Nov 16 | Dec 2 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $447 (-20%) | +$5,614 | +$5,546 | +$5,585 | +$5,692 |
| $475 (-15%) | +$3,300 | +$2,995 | +$2,830 | +$2,897 |
| $503 (-10%) | +$1,506 | +$881 | +$289 | +$103 |
| $531 (-5%) | +$439 | -$477 | -$1,587 | -$2,692 |
| $548 (-2%) | +$203 | -$823 | -$2,147 | -$4,368 |
| $559 (0%) ← spot | +$220 | -$843 | -$2,232 | -$5,486 |
| $570 (+2%) | +$372 | -$697 | -$2,083 | -$4,592 |
| $587 (+5%) | +$840 | -$186 | -$1,453 | -$2,916 |
| $615 (+10%) | +$2,183 | +$1,329 | +$426 | -$121 |
| $640 (+15%) ← target | +$3,875 | +$3,218 | +$2,643 | +$2,402 |
| $671 (+20%) | +$6,353 | +$5,912 | +$5,602 | +$5,468 |
Uses VRTX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.