Target Price Playground
๐ Strategy
๐ฏ Target
โ๏ธ Legs
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If VRTX hits $570 by Oct 16: the cash-secured put returns +$979 (2.0%) on $-979 credit (max loss $48,521), vs +$2,974 (5.5%) for 100 shares on $54,026. Options give 0.4ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Oct 16, 2026 (56 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if VRTX is at $570. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| VRTX Price | Today | Sep 8 | Sep 27 | Oct 16 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $432 (-20%) | -$5,513 | -$5,363 | -$5,249 | -$5,300 |
| $459 (-15%) | -$3,501 | -$3,201 | -$2,836 | -$2,599 |
| $486 (-10%) | -$1,911 | -$1,514 | -$958 | +$102 |
| $513 (-5%) | -$760 | -$357 | +$194 | +$979 |
| $529 (-2%) | -$263 | +$106 | +$572 | +$979 |
| $540 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | +$336 | +$729 | +$979 |
| $551 (+2%) | +$216 | +$513 | +$831 | +$979 |
| $570 (+6%) โ target | +$497 | +$724 | +$925 | +$979 |
| $594 (+10%) | +$723 | +$869 | +$966 | +$979 |
| $621 (+15%) | +$858 | +$940 | +$977 | +$979 |
| $648 (+20%) | +$925 | +$966 | +$979 | +$979 |