Target Price Playground
VRTX
$540.26
๐ข
VRTX IV: 30.0% โ LOW
(-67.2% vs 30d avg of 91.4%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $580 by Oct 16
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
56d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $540.26 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $580 ยท Oct '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $12.88 ยท ฮ 0.31
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If VRTX hits $580 by Oct 16: the covered call returns +$5,262 (10.0%) on $52,738 risked, vs +$3,974 (7.4%) for 100 shares on $54,026. Options give 1.4ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Oct 16, 2026 (56 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if VRTX is at $580. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if VRTX hits $580 by Oct 16
+$5,262
+10.0% on $52,738 risked
Max Profit
+$5,262
If the stock โฅ $580 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$52,738
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$527.38
-2.38% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
58%
IV-implied, 56d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
69.12 / 21.88 / -78.2
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| VRTX Price | Today | Sep 8 | Sep 27 | Oct 16 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $432 (-20%) | -$9,555 | -$9,525 | -$9,517 | -$9,517 |
| $459 (-15%) | -$6,945 | -$6,856 | -$6,818 | -$6,816 |
| $486 (-10%) | -$4,463 | -$4,266 | -$4,134 | -$4,115 |
| $513 (-5%) | -$2,198 | -$1,855 | -$1,528 | -$1,413 |
| $529 (-2%) | -$983 | -$548 | -$68 | +$207 |
| $540 (0%) โ spot | -$241 | +$249 | +$833 | +$1,288 |
| $551 (+2%) | +$442 | +$979 | +$1,656 | +$2,369 |
| $567 (+5%) | +$1,351 | +$1,939 | +$2,716 | +$3,989 |
| $580 (+7%) โ target | +$1,970 | +$2,576 | +$3,389 | +$5,262 |
| $594 (+10%) | +$2,566 | +$3,173 | +$3,977 | +$5,262 |
| $621 (+15%) | +$3,433 | +$3,990 | +$4,666 | +$5,262 |
| $648 (+20%) | +$4,014 | +$4,481 | +$4,972 | +$5,262 |
Uses VRTX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.