Target Price Playground
VRTX
$540.26
๐ข
VRTX IV: 30.0% โ LOW
(-67.2% vs 30d avg of 91.4%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $610 by Oct 16
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy shares and hold. Unlimited upside, full downside.
๐ฏ Target
56d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $540.26 ยท ฮ 1.00
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Stock
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If VRTX hits $610 by Oct 16: the long stock returns +$6,974 (12.9%) on $54,026 risked, vs $ (None%) for 100 shares on $.
๐ Expiry
Stock-only position โ no expiry. Target date is Oct 16.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if VRTX hits $610 by Oct 16
+$6,974
+12.9% on $54,026 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside
Max Loss
โ$54,026
If stock โ $0
Break-even
$540.26
+0.0% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
34%
IV-implied, 56d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
100.0 / 0.0 / 0.0
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| VRTX Price | Today | Sep 20 | Oct 20 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|
| $432 (-20%) | -$10,805 | -$10,805 | -$10,805 |
| $459 (-15%) | -$8,104 | -$8,104 | -$8,104 |
| $486 (-10%) | -$5,403 | -$5,403 | -$5,403 |
| $513 (-5%) | -$2,701 | -$2,701 | -$2,701 |
| $529 (-2%) | -$1,081 | -$1,081 | -$1,081 |
| $540 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | +$0 | +$0 |
| $551 (+2%) | +$1,081 | +$1,081 | +$1,081 |
| $567 (+5%) | +$2,701 | +$2,701 | +$2,701 |
| $594 (+10%) | +$5,403 | +$5,403 | +$5,403 |
| $610 (+13%) โ target | +$6,974 | +$6,974 | +$6,974 |
| $621 (+15%) | +$8,104 | +$8,104 | +$8,104 |
| $648 (+20%) | +$10,805 | +$10,805 | +$10,805 |
Uses VRTX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.