Target Price Playground
VRTX
$540.26
๐ข
VRTX IV: 30.0% โ LOW
(-67.2% vs 30d avg of 91.4%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $590 by Oct 16
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
๐ฏ Target
56d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $540.26 ยท ฮ 1.00
LONG PUT ยท $510 ยท Oct '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $10.45 ยท ฮ -0.28
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If VRTX hits $590 by Oct 16: the protective put returns +$3,929 (7.1%) on $55,071 risked, vs +$4,974 (9.2%) for 100 shares on $54,026. Options give 0.8ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Oct 16, 2026 (56 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if VRTX is at $590. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if VRTX hits $590 by Oct 16
+$3,929
+7.1% on $55,071 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
โ$4,071
Put floors you at $510
Break-even
$550.71
+1.93% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
49%
IV-implied, 56d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
71.71 / -17.31 / 69.82
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| VRTX Price | Today | Sep 8 | Sep 27 | Oct 16 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $432 (-20%) | -$4,058 | -$4,142 | -$4,166 | -$4,071 |
| $459 (-15%) | -$3,547 | -$3,782 | -$4,023 | -$4,071 |
| $486 (-10%) | -$2,661 | -$3,027 | -$3,515 | -$4,071 |
| $513 (-5%) | -$1,346 | -$1,769 | -$2,367 | -$3,746 |
| $529 (-2%) | -$356 | -$771 | -$1,336 | -$2,126 |
| $540 (0%) โ spot | +$381 | -$13 | -$525 | -$1,045 |
| $551 (+2%) | +$1,173 | +$810 | +$366 | +$36 |
| $567 (+5%) | +$2,452 | +$2,143 | +$1,812 | +$1,656 |
| $590 (+9%) โ target | +$4,394 | +$4,170 | +$3,977 | +$3,929 |
| $621 (+15%) | +$7,267 | +$7,141 | +$7,066 | +$7,059 |
| $648 (+20%) | +$9,859 | +$9,790 | +$9,761 | +$9,760 |
Uses VRTX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.