Target Price Playground
VRTX
$540.26
๐ข
VRTX IV: 30.0% โ LOW
(-67.2% vs 30d avg of 91.4%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $620 by Oct 16
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bet on big move in either direction. Two premiums paid.
๐ฏ Target
56d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $540 ยท Oct '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $35.3 ยท ฮ 0.54
LONG PUT ยท $540 ยท Oct '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $22.4 ยท ฮ -0.47
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Straddle
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If VRTX hits $620 by Oct 16: the long straddle returns +$2,230 (38.6%) on $5,770 risked, vs +$7,974 (14.8%) for 100 shares on $54,026. Options give 2.6ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Oct 16, 2026 (56 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if VRTX is at $620. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if VRTX hits $620 by Oct 16
+$2,230
+38.6% on $5,770 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited on a big move
Max Loss
โ$5,770
Both premiums paid
Break-even
$597.70
+10.63% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
27%
IV-implied, 56d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
6.57 / -46.56 / 167.72
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| VRTX Price | Today | Sep 8 | Sep 27 | Oct 16 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $432 (-20%) | +$4,930 | +$4,853 | +$4,888 | +$5,009 |
| $459 (-15%) | +$2,749 | +$2,436 | +$2,240 | +$2,308 |
| $486 (-10%) | +$1,089 | +$472 | -$166 | -$393 |
| $513 (-5%) | +$136 | -$746 | -$1,883 | -$3,095 |
| $529 (-2%) | -$49 | -$1,029 | -$2,361 | -$4,715 |
| $540 (0%) โ spot | -$9 | -$1,020 | -$2,408 | -$5,744 |
| $551 (+2%) | +$160 | -$855 | -$2,235 | -$4,663 |
| $567 (+5%) | +$636 | -$337 | -$1,600 | -$3,043 |
| $594 (+10%) | +$1,958 | +$1,141 | +$226 | -$341 |
| $620 (+15%) โ target | +$3,699 | +$3,070 | +$2,485 | +$2,230 |
| $648 (+20%) | +$5,992 | +$5,553 | +$5,215 | +$5,061 |
Uses VRTX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.