Target Price Playground
VRTX
$451.52
๐ข
VRTX IV: 31.3% โ LOW
(-59.8% vs 30d avg of 78.0%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $490 by Aug 21
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
64d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $451.52 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $490 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $12.2 ยท ฮ 0.31
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If VRTX hits $490 by Aug 21: the covered call returns +$5,068 (11.5%) on $43,932 risked, vs +$3,848 (8.5%) for 100 shares on $45,152. Options give 1.4ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Aug 21, 2026 (64 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if VRTX is at $490. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if VRTX hits $490 by Aug 21
+$5,068
+11.5% on $43,932 risked
Max Profit
+$5,068
If the stock โฅ $490 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$43,932
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$439.32
-2.7% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
54%
IV-implied, 64d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
68.92 / 17.02 / -70.21
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| VRTX Price | Today | Jul 9 | Jul 30 | Aug 21 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $361 (-20%) | -$7,843 | -$7,816 | -$7,810 | -$7,810 |
| $384 (-15%) | -$5,660 | -$5,584 | -$5,554 | -$5,553 |
| $406 (-10%) | -$3,578 | -$3,412 | -$3,309 | -$3,295 |
| $429 (-5%) | -$1,668 | -$1,376 | -$1,123 | -$1,038 |
| $442 (-2%) | -$632 | -$261 | +$115 | +$317 |
| $452 (0%) โ spot | +$3 | +$425 | +$886 | +$1,220 |
| $461 (+2%) | +$593 | +$1,058 | +$1,600 | +$2,123 |
| $474 (+5%) | +$1,386 | +$1,903 | +$2,540 | +$3,478 |
| $490 (+9%) โ target | +$2,176 | +$2,723 | +$3,416 | +$5,068 |
| $497 (+10%) | +$2,463 | +$3,014 | +$3,707 | +$5,068 |
| $519 (+15%) | +$3,255 | +$3,778 | +$4,396 | +$5,068 |
| $542 (+20%) | +$3,803 | +$4,257 | +$4,733 | +$5,068 |
Uses VRTX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.