Target Price Playground
WDC
$366.11
🟢
WDC IV: 62.7% — LOW
(-29.6% vs 30d avg of 89.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $350 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy a longer-dated put, sell a shorter-dated OTM put. Profits from time decay + a moderate drop.
🎯 Target
48d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG PUT · $365 · Jan '27
Qty 1 · Premium $39.3 · Δ -0.43
SHORT PUT · $350 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $27.4 · Δ -0.37
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Diagonal Put Spread
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If WDC hits $350 by Dec 18: the diagonal put spread returns +$2,034 (171.0%) on $1,190 risked, vs $-1,611 (-4.4%) for 100 shares on $36,611. Options give 38.9× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if WDC is at $350. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if WDC hits $350 by Dec 18
+$2,034
+171.0% on $1,190 risked
Max Profit
+$2,018
If the stock price is favorable
Max Loss
−$998
Worst-case within chart range
Break-even
$401.21
+9.59% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
85%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
-5.33 / 7.57 / 14.27
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| WDC Price | Today | Nov 16 | Dec 2 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $293 (-20%) | +$484 | +$556 | +$615 | +$475 |
| $311 (-15%) | +$499 | +$609 | +$763 | +$776 |
| $330 (-10%) | +$477 | +$613 | +$843 | +$1,254 |
| $350 (-4%) ← target | +$409 | +$549 | +$803 | +$2,034 |
| $359 (-2%) | +$367 | +$500 | +$741 | +$1,573 |
| $366 (0%) ← spot | +$327 | +$451 | +$672 | +$1,226 |
| $373 (+2%) | +$282 | +$395 | +$589 | +$913 |
| $384 (+5%) | +$209 | +$300 | +$443 | +$502 |
| $403 (+10%) | +$74 | +$122 | +$169 | -$39 |
| $421 (+15%) | -$69 | -$65 | -$108 | -$428 |
| $439 (+20%) | -$214 | -$249 | -$360 | -$698 |
Uses WDC's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.