Target Price Playground
WDC
$366.11
🟢
WDC IV: 62.7% — LOW
(-29.6% vs 30d avg of 89.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $420 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bet on big move in either direction. Two premiums paid.
🎯 Target
48d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG CALL · $365 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $34.75 · Δ 0.56
LONG PUT · $365 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $31.49 · Δ -0.44
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Straddle
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If WDC hits $420 by Dec 18: the long straddle returns $-1,124 (-17.0%) on $6,624 risked, vs +$5,389 (14.7%) for 100 shares on $36,611. Options give 1.2× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if WDC is at $420. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if WDC hits $420 by Dec 18
$-1,124
-17.0% on $6,624 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited on a big move
Max Loss
−$6,624
Both premiums paid
Break-even
$431.24
+17.79% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
52%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
12.18 / -68.32 / 104.69
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| WDC Price | Today | Nov 16 | Dec 2 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $293 (-20%) | +$1,756 | +$1,180 | +$690 | +$587 |
| $311 (-15%) | +$824 | +$24 | -$814 | -$1,243 |
| $330 (-10%) | +$212 | -$784 | -$1,975 | -$3,074 |
| $348 (-5%) | -$61 | -$1,198 | -$2,658 | -$4,904 |
| $359 (-2%) | -$64 | -$1,252 | -$2,803 | -$6,003 |
| $366 (0%) ← spot | -$0 | -$1,207 | -$2,787 | -$6,513 |
| $373 (+2%) | +$114 | -$1,100 | -$2,683 | -$5,781 |
| $384 (+5%) | +$376 | -$829 | -$2,371 | -$4,682 |
| $403 (+10%) | +$1,037 | -$106 | -$1,485 | -$2,852 |
| $420 (+15%) ← target | +$1,888 | +$843 | -$319 | -$1,124 |
| $439 (+20%) | +$3,061 | +$2,151 | +$1,248 | +$809 |
Uses WDC's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.