Target Price Playground
WDC
$366.11
🟢
WDC IV: 62.7% — LOW
(-29.6% vs 30d avg of 89.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $395 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
🎯 Target
48d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $366.11 · Δ 1.00
SHORT CALL · $395 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $22.77 · Δ 0.42
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If WDC hits $395 by Dec 18: the covered call returns +$5,166 (15.0%) on $34,334 risked, vs +$2,889 (7.9%) for 100 shares on $36,611. Options give 1.9× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if WDC is at $395. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if WDC hits $395 by Dec 18
+$5,166
+15.0% on $34,334 risked
Max Profit
+$5,166
If the stock ≥ $395 at expiry
Max Loss
−$34,334
If stock → $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$343.34
-6.22% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
73%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
57.65 / 35.69 / -51.99
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| WDC Price | Today | Nov 16 | Dec 2 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $293 (-20%) | -$5,407 | -$5,197 | -$5,064 | -$5,045 |
| $311 (-15%) | -$3,852 | -$3,537 | -$3,281 | -$3,215 |
| $330 (-10%) | -$2,421 | -$1,993 | -$1,573 | -$1,384 |
| $348 (-5%) | -$1,134 | -$600 | +$1 | +$446 |
| $359 (-2%) | -$435 | +$154 | +$856 | +$1,545 |
| $366 (0%) ← spot | +$0 | +$619 | +$1,381 | +$2,277 |
| $373 (+2%) | +$409 | +$1,054 | +$1,866 | +$3,009 |
| $384 (+5%) | +$978 | +$1,652 | +$2,517 | +$4,108 |
| $395 (+8%) ← target | +$1,473 | +$2,163 | +$3,055 | +$5,166 |
| $403 (+10%) | +$1,803 | +$2,498 | +$3,394 | +$5,166 |
| $421 (+15%) | +$2,487 | +$3,171 | +$4,028 | +$5,166 |
| $439 (+20%) | +$3,043 | +$3,691 | +$4,456 | +$5,166 |
Uses WDC's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.