Target Price Playground
WDC
$748.68
๐ข
WDC IV: 89.5% โ LOW
(-22.4% vs 30d avg of 115.4%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $810 by Aug 21
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
64d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $748.68 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $810 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $104.27 ยท ฮ 0.51
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If WDC hits $810 by Aug 21: the covered call returns +$16,559 (25.7%) on $64,441 risked, vs +$6,132 (8.2%) for 100 shares on $74,868. Options give 3.1ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Aug 21, 2026 (64 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if WDC is at $810. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if WDC hits $810 by Aug 21
+$16,559
+25.7% on $64,441 risked
Max Profit
+$16,559
If the stock โฅ $810 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$64,441
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$644.41
-13.93% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
83%
IV-implied, 64d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
48.88 / 101.35 / -125.85
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| WDC Price | Today | Jul 9 | Jul 30 | Aug 21 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $599 (-20%) | -$7,991 | -$6,619 | -$5,241 | -$4,547 |
| $636 (-15%) | -$5,422 | -$3,808 | -$2,035 | -$803 |
| $674 (-10%) | -$3,063 | -$1,231 | +$922 | +$2,940 |
| $711 (-5%) | -$909 | +$1,107 | +$3,592 | +$6,684 |
| $734 (-2%) | +$286 | +$2,394 | +$5,045 | +$8,930 |
| $749 (0%) โ spot | +$1,044 | +$3,204 | +$5,950 | +$10,427 |
| $764 (+2%) | +$1,770 | +$3,977 | +$6,804 | +$11,924 |
| $786 (+5%) | +$2,804 | +$5,068 | +$7,989 | +$14,170 |
| $810 (+8%) โ target | +$3,831 | +$6,140 | +$9,126 | +$16,559 |
| $824 (+10%) | +$4,383 | +$6,709 | +$9,716 | +$16,559 |
| $861 (+15%) | +$5,792 | +$8,142 | +$11,151 | +$16,559 |
| $898 (+20%) | +$7,046 | +$9,385 | +$12,323 | +$16,559 |
Uses WDC's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.