Acadia Pharmaceuticals (ACAD) Intrinsic Value Calculator

Updated: Sep 11, 2026

Acadia Pharmaceuticals (ACAD) trades at $27.83, close to its base-case intrinsic value of $26.90 (-3%). The model starts from $0.89 in expected earnings per share, grows it at 25.0% annually (analyst consensus) decaying to a 4% terminal rate by Year 5, applies a 25.0x exit multiple, and discounts the result back at 10% per year. The stock looks roughly fairly priced under these assumptions — the sliders below show how sensitive that conclusion is to growth and discount-rate changes.

Calculating...
Current Price
$27.83
Intrinsic Value
$26.90
Implied Upside: --

Discounted Cash Flow with Growth Decay Model

Customize Your Valuation

Adjust the assumptions below to model different scenarios. The intrinsic value updates in real-time.

Conservative
Base Case
Aggressive
Time Horizon 5 years
3 years 10 years
Initial Growth Rate 25.0%
0% (No Growth) 50% (High Growth)
Terminal Growth Rate 4.0%
0% (Decline) 6% (GDP+)
Discount Rate (Required Return) 10.0%
5% (Low Risk) 15% (High Risk)
Exit PE Multiple 25.0x
8x (Value) 40x (Growth)
Calculated Intrinsic Value
$26.90
--

Year-by-Year Projections

EPS growth decays from initial rate to terminal rate over the projection period.

Year Growth Rate EPS Stock Price Present Value

Price Projection

Sensitivity Analysis

How intrinsic value changes with different growth and discount rate assumptions.

Model Inputs
Base EPS $0.89
Current Price $27.83
Historical PE 25.0x
Analyst Growth Est. 25.0%
More ACAD Analysis
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How It Works

Growth Decay Model: We project EPS growth that gradually slows from the initial rate to a terminal rate (typically 3-4%, matching long-term GDP growth).

Terminal Value: At the end of the projection period, we apply an exit PE multiple to estimate the future stock price.

Discounting: Future values are discounted back to today using your required rate of return (discount rate).