Acadia Pharmaceuticals (ACAD) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$18.28
+1.78 (+10.79%)
▲
5d:
-11.13%
30d:
-5.82%
90d:
-37.93%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (62%)
Quality Score
43/100
Position
OVERSOLD
30-Day Fair Range
$18.91 – $20.85
Position: OVERSOLD
Forward P/E & Valuation
17.5x
CHEAP
vs 27.4x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$30.68
+67.9% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$15.86 / $22.63
Trend: Downtrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: ACAD is down 11.1% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Smart Money Accumulation
Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →
Signal fired Nov 9, 2026 at $17.91 · last confirmed Nov 9, 2026
Strength: 7.4/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$50.92
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$31.62
42.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ACAD is currently trading at $18.28, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $18.91 to $20.85. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 17.5) compared to its historical average (27.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 13.9% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ACAD is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $15.86, while resistance sits at $22.63. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 10.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: ACAD scores 26/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $30.68 (+67.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ACAD is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $15.86, while resistance sits at $22.63. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 10.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: ACAD scores 26/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $30.68 (+67.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$18.91 -
$20.85
Company Quality Score
43/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.9%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$18.91 -
$20.85
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support Level
$15.86
Resistance Level
$22.63
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Nov 10, 2026
Protect Your Profits
Holding ACAD? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanQuantitative Signal Breakdown
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (26/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+10.8%)
- BULLISH: Trading 67.9% below Wall St target ($30.68)
- WARNING: Composite score 43/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
17.48
Wall Street Target
$30.68
(+67.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
22.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-26.2%
Profit Margin
30.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-13.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
17.5 vs 27.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-13.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$16.45
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$14.81
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$13.33
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 17→27)
$20.89
(+14%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 42.6%)
$60.29
(+230%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 17.5, Growth: 42.6%)
$53.05
(+190%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.9, Growth: 42.6%)
$45.10
(+147%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 7.78 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.12
Bull Case
$9.07
(-50%)
Analyst growth -50.0%, PE expands to 8.6
Base Case
$8.25
(-55%)
Market implied -50.0%, PE stable at 7.8
Bear Case
$11.22
(-39%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 6.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 17.5 to 27.4
Stabilization Target:
$28.66
(+56.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+56.8%
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (ACAD)
Bullish
4 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
3
Bullish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Nov 11, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Acadia Pharmaceuticals reported Q3 2026 results with revenue beating expectations and stronger sales of Daybue and Nuplazid. However, net income and net margin declined, raising concerns about profitability and growth potential.
Key Retail Themes:
product demand
profitability concerns
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 10, 2026 9:36 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:36 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:36 PM
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Technical Signals Check
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Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
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