ALAR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ALAR - Alarum Technologies Ltd. American Depositary Share
$9.17
0.08 (0.88%)
▲
5d:
-2.29%
30d:
+22.68%
90d:
+51.07%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 18, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 28, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ALAR shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 25.1% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ALAR shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 25.1% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$27.26
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$16.93
45.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ALAR is currently trading at $9.17, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $7.65 to $9.76. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 16.4) compared to its historical average (39.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 25.1% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALAR is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $8.80, while resistance sits at $10.79.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $16.00 (+74.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALAR is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $8.80, while resistance sits at $10.79.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $16.00 (+74.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$7.65 -
$9.76
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
72.4%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 74.5% below Wall St target ($16.00)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$7.65 -
$9.76
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$8.80
Resistance Level
$10.79
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 18, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.38
Wall Street Target
$16.00
(+74.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
64.2%
Profit Margin
2.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-25.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
16.4 vs 39.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-25.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$8.25
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$7.43
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$6.68
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→39)
$15.92
(+74%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 80.6%)
$41.16
(+349%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.4, Growth: 80.6%)
$30.95
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.9, Growth: 80.6%)
$26.31
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (49x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (16x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 48.54 | Forward EPS (Implied): $0.19
Bull Case
$11.07
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 51.0
Base Case
$9.17
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 48.5
Bear Case
$7.02
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 43.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 16.4 to 39.0
Stabilization Target:
$21.84
(+138.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+138.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 20, 2026 11:56 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:56 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:56 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ALAR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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