Alamo Group (ALG) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ALG - Alamo Group, Inc.
$169.08
1.80 (1.08%)
â˛
5d:
-1.43%
30d:
+2.34%
90d:
+9.5%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 05, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: ALG is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -1.2% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: ALG is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -1.2% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$277.61
Based on 9.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$172.37
1.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ALG is currently trading at $169.08, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $162.89 to $170.17. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 13.9) is in line with its historical norms (14.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.2% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALG is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $161.78, while resistance sits at $175.09.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 47/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $204.80 (+21.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALG is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $161.78, while resistance sits at $175.09.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 47/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $204.80 (+21.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$162.89 -
$170.17
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
65.2%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (47/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 21.1% below Wall St target ($204.80)
- WARNING: Composite score 50/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$162.89 -
$170.17
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$161.78
Resistance Level
$175.09
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.89
Wall Street Target
$204.80
(+21.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
7.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-0.8%
Profit Margin
6.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
13.9 vs 14.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$167.05
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$165.05
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$163.07
(-4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14â14)
$169.10
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 15.4%)
$377.11
(+123%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.9, Growth: 15.4%)
$259.63
(+54%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.8, Growth: 15.4%)
$220.69
(+31%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (21x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 20.58 | Current EPS (TTM): $8.13
Bull Case
$275.58
(+63%)
Analyst growth 49.8%, PE expands to 22.6
Base Case
$250.53
(+48%)
Market implied 49.8%, PE stable at 20.6
Bear Case
$113.75
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 17.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 13.9 to 14.4
Stabilization Target:
$175.33
(+3.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+3.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 12, 2026 10:21 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:21 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:21 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ALG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Edward Rizzuti
SELL
600 shares
2026-03-24
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