ALG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ALG - Alamo Group, Inc.
$162.24
0.76 (0.47%)
▲
5d:
-5.06%
30d:
+7.54%
90d:
-8.28%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
21d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: ALG shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: ALG shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$260.61
Based on 8.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$161.82
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ALG is currently trading at $162.24, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $153.41 to $166.71. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 13.5) is in line with its historical norms (14.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.6% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALG is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $159.14. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $209.80 (+29.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALG is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $159.14. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $209.80 (+29.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$153.41 -
$166.71
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
72.4%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 29.3% below Wall St target ($209.80)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -5.1% 5-day decline
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$153.41 -
$166.71
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$159.14
Resistance Level
$172.34
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jul 13, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.48
Wall Street Target
$209.80
(+29.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-8.7%
Profit Margin
6.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
13.5 vs 14.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$158.02
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$153.91
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$149.91
(-8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→15)
$162.32
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 12.5%)
$372.87
(+130%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.5, Growth: 12.5%)
$230.85
(+42%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.5, Growth: 12.5%)
$196.22
(+21%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (19x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 19.32 | Current EPS (TTM): $8.36
Bull Case
$255.65
(+58%)
Analyst growth 43.9%, PE expands to 21.3
Base Case
$232.41
(+43%)
Market implied 43.9%, PE stable at 19.3
Bear Case
$109.81
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 16.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 13.5 to 14.6
Stabilization Target:
$175.67
(+8.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+8.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 13, 2026 11:25 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:25 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:25 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ALG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Edward Rizzuti
SELL
600 shares
2026-03-24
Nina C Grooms
SELL
499 shares
2026-03-11
Robert Paul Hureau
BUY
460 shares
2026-03-09
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