Alamo Group (ALG) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ALG - Alamo Group, Inc.
$161.01
4.65 (2.97%)
â˛
5d:
+0.98%
30d:
-6.01%
90d:
-5.78%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 05, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: ALG is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -2.6% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: ALG is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -2.6% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$277.52
Based on 9.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$172.32
6.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ALG is currently trading at $161.01, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $160.29 to $170.12. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 13.2) is in line with its historical norms (14.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.6% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALG is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $151.63, while resistance sits at $169.00.
Market Sentiment: ALG scores 62/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $204.80 (+27.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALG is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $151.63, while resistance sits at $169.00.
Market Sentiment: ALG scores 62/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $204.80 (+27.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$160.29 -
$170.12
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
90.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (62/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 27.2% below Wall St target ($204.80)
- WARNING: Composite score 50/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$160.29 -
$170.12
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$151.63
Resistance Level
$169.00
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.22
Wall Street Target
$204.80
(+27.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
7.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-0.8%
Profit Margin
6.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
13.2 vs 14.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$156.82
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$152.75
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$148.77
(-8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13â14)
$160.89
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 15.7%)
$384.25
(+139%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.2, Growth: 15.7%)
$249.07
(+55%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.2, Growth: 15.7%)
$211.71
(+32%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (19x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 18.55 | Current EPS (TTM): $8.43
Bull Case
$248.42
(+54%)
Analyst growth 44.4%, PE expands to 20.4
Base Case
$225.84
(+40%)
Market implied 44.4%, PE stable at 18.6
Bear Case
$106.32
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 15.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 13.2 to 14.3
Stabilization Target:
$174.12
(+8.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+8.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 02, 2026 11:00 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:00 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:00 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ALG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
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Net
NEUTRAL
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