ALG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ALG - Alamo Group, Inc.
$162.65
3.56 (2.24%)
▲
5d:
-1.09%
30d:
-4.47%
90d:
-5.08%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 03, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ALG shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.0% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ALG shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.0% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$258.83
Based on 8.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$160.71
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ALG is currently trading at $162.65, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $160.53 to $167.31. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 13.2) is in line with its historical norms (14.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.0% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALG is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $156.05, while resistance sits at $168.79.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $209.80 (+31.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALG is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $156.05, while resistance sits at $168.79.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $209.80 (+31.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$160.53 -
$167.31
Company Quality Score
48/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
72.4%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 31.9% below Wall St target ($209.80)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$160.53 -
$167.31
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$156.05
Resistance Level
$168.80
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.22
Wall Street Target
$209.80
(+31.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-8.7%
Profit Margin
6.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
13.2 vs 14.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$154.31
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$149.68
(-6%)
3-Year Target
$145.19
(-9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→15)
$159.23
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 12.5%)
$354.90
(+123%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.2, Growth: 12.5%)
$226.35
(+42%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.2, Growth: 12.5%)
$192.40
(+21%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (19x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 18.86 | Current EPS (TTM): $8.37
Bull Case
$249.59
(+57%)
Analyst growth 43.8%, PE expands to 20.7
Base Case
$226.90
(+43%)
Market implied 43.8%, PE stable at 18.9
Bear Case
$107.33
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 16.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 13.2 to 14.5
Stabilization Target:
$174.46
(+9.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+9.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 3:13 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:13 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:13 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ALG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Edward Rizzuti
SELL
600 shares
2026-03-24
Nina C Grooms
SELL
499 shares
2026-03-11
Robert Paul Hureau
BUY
460 shares
2026-03-09
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