ALG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ALG - Alamo Group, Inc.
$164.40
1.94 (1.19%)
▲
5d:
-0.32%
30d:
-0.39%
90d:
+9.72%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 03, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ALG shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.2% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ALG shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.2% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$277.61
Based on 9.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$172.37
4.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ALG is currently trading at $164.40, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $160.50 to $167.25. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 13.5) is in line with its historical norms (14.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.2% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALG is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $158.80, while resistance sits at $173.24.
Market Sentiment: ALG scores 67/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $204.80 (+24.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALG is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $158.80, while resistance sits at $173.24.
Market Sentiment: ALG scores 67/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $204.80 (+24.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$160.50 -
$167.25
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
83.3%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (67/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 24.6% below Wall St target ($204.80)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 67/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$160.50 -
$167.25
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$158.80
Resistance Level
$173.24
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.50
Wall Street Target
$204.80
(+24.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
7.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-0.8%
Profit Margin
6.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
13.5 vs 14.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$160.78
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$157.25
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$153.79
(-7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→14)
$164.02
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 15.4%)
$375.24
(+128%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.5, Growth: 15.4%)
$252.44
(+54%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.5, Growth: 15.4%)
$214.58
(+31%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (19x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 19.46 | Current EPS (TTM): $8.35
Bull Case
$260.59
(+59%)
Analyst growth 45.8%, PE expands to 21.4
Base Case
$236.90
(+44%)
Market implied 45.8%, PE stable at 19.5
Bear Case
$110.47
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 16.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 13.5 to 14.4
Stabilization Target:
$175.33
(+6.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+6.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 23, 2026 7:11 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:11 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:11 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is ALG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Edward Rizzuti
SELL
600 shares
2026-03-24
Nina C Grooms
SELL
499 shares
2026-03-11
Robert Paul Hureau
BUY
460 shares
2026-03-09
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