Alamo Group (ALG) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ALG - Alamo Group, Inc.
$147.23
-1.27 (-0.86%)
▼
5d:
-3.53%
30d:
-10.57%
90d:
-10.96%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 05, 2026
12d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: ALG shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: ALG shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$275.58
Based on 9.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$171.12
14.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ALG is currently trading at $147.23, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $151.67 to $165.01. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 12.1) compared to its historical average (14.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.2% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALG is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $145.79. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: ALG scores 11/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $204.80 (+39.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALG is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $145.79. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: ALG scores 11/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $204.80 (+39.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$151.67 -
$165.01
Company Quality Score
36/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (11/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 39.1% below Wall St target ($204.80)
- WARNING: Composite score 36/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$151.67 -
$165.01
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$145.79
Resistance Level
$156.11
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Oct 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.09
Wall Street Target
$204.80
(+39.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
7.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-0.8%
Profit Margin
6.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
12.1 vs 14.2
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$139.57
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$132.32
(-10%)
3-Year Target
$125.44
(-15%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→14)
$147.31
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 15.7%)
$374.08
(+154%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.1, Growth: 15.7%)
$227.76
(+55%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.3, Growth: 15.7%)
$193.59
(+32%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (18x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 17.87 | Current EPS (TTM): $8.31
Bull Case
$239.34
(+63%)
Analyst growth 46.5%, PE expands to 19.7
Base Case
$217.59
(+48%)
Market implied 46.5%, PE stable at 17.9
Bear Case
$100.98
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 15.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 12.1 to 14.2
Stabilization Target:
$172.90
(+17.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+17.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 23, 2026 2:15 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:15 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:15 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ALG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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