ALG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ALG - Alamo Group, Inc.
$159.08
-1.97 (-1.22%)
▼
5d:
+4.62%
30d:
+6.17%
90d:
-4.89%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ALG shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.4% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ALG shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.4% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$262.40
Based on 8.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$162.93
2.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ALG is currently trading at $159.08, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $149.30 to $156.06. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 13.2) compared to its historical average (14.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.4% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALG is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $163.06. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: ALG has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $209.80 (+31.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALG is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $163.06. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: ALG has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $209.80 (+31.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$149.30 -
$156.06
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.9%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 31.9% below Wall St target ($209.80)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$149.30 -
$156.06
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$149.82
Resistance Level
$163.06
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 23, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.22
Wall Street Target
$209.80
(+31.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-8.7%
Profit Margin
6.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
13.2 vs 14.7
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$153.67
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$148.45
(-7%)
3-Year Target
$143.40
(-10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→15)
$159.44
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 12.5%)
$372.87
(+134%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.2, Growth: 12.5%)
$226.35
(+42%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.2, Growth: 12.5%)
$192.40
(+21%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (19x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 19.26 | Current EPS (TTM): $8.36
Bull Case
$254.97
(+60%)
Analyst growth 43.9%, PE expands to 21.2
Base Case
$231.79
(+46%)
Market implied 43.9%, PE stable at 19.3
Bear Case
$109.51
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 16.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 13.2 to 14.7
Stabilization Target:
$176.87
(+11.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+11.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 9:36 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:36 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:36 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
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Technical Signals Check
Is ALG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Edward Rizzuti
SELL
600 shares
2026-03-24
Nina C Grooms
SELL
499 shares
2026-03-11
Robert Paul Hureau
BUY
460 shares
2026-03-09
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