ALKS Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ALKS - Alkermes Inc. plc
$49.53
0.54 (1.10%)
▲
5d:
-6.07%
30d:
-9.25%
90d:
+48.38%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 28, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: ALKS trades at premium valuation expecting 8.2% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
📊 HOLD: ALKS trades at premium valuation expecting 8.2% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$76.19
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$47.31
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 21.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ALKS is currently trading at $49.53, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $50.62 to $54.06. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 27.1) compared to its historical average (21.4). At these levels, the market is pricing in 8.2% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALKS is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $47.66, while resistance sits at $53.88.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $56.00 (+13.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALKS is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $47.66, while resistance sits at $53.88.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $56.00 (+13.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$50.62 -
$54.06
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
80.5%
Protect Your Profits
Holding ALKS? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($56.00)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 8.2% growth with 27.0% revenue growth
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -6.1% 5-day decline
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$50.62 -
$54.06
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$47.66
Resistance Level
$53.88
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
27.09
Wall Street Target
$56.00
(+13.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
27.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-99.4%
Profit Margin
4.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+8.2% premium
PE vs Historical
27.1 vs 21.4
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+8.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$53.59
(+8%)
2-Year Target
$57.99
(+17%)
3-Year Target
$62.74
(+27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 27→21)
PE COMPRESSION
$49.56
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 27.1, Growth: 43.4%)
$146.09
(+195%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.7, Growth: 43.4%)
$111.78
(+126%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.6, Growth: 43.4%)
$95.01
(+92%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (133x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (27x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 133.33 | Forward EPS (Implied): $0.37
Bull Case
$59.16
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 140.0
Base Case
$48.99
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 133.3
Bear Case
$37.48
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 120.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 5:19 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:19 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:19 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ALKS showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
5
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
David Joseph Gaffin
SELL
2034 shares
2026-04-06
Craig C Hopkinson
SELL
9000 shares
2026-04-01
Christian Todd Nichols
SELL
6000 shares
2026-03-02
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Advanced ALKS Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ALKS price and gamma walls.
