AMPY Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AMPY - Amplify Energy Corp.
$3.97
0.04 (1.02%)
▲
5d:
-2.7%
30d:
-20.76%
90d:
-39.76%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 24, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: AMPY trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -25.1% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: AMPY trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -25.1% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$13.15
Based on 7.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$8.16
51.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AMPY is currently trading at $3.97, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $4.16 to $4.93. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 4.3) compared to its historical average (10.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 25.1% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AMPY is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $3.85. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $9.12 (+132.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AMPY is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $3.85. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $9.12 (+132.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$4.16 -
$4.93
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 132.2% below Wall St target ($9.12)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$4.16 -
$4.93
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$3.86
Resistance Level
$4.66
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 24, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
4.27
Wall Street Target
$9.13
(+132.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-48.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-12.0%
Profit Margin
5.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-25.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
4.3 vs 10.2
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-25.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$3.54
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$3.18
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$2.86
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 4→10)
$6.84
(+74%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (16x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (4x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 16.16 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.25
Bull Case
$8.89
(+126%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 17.8
Base Case
$8.08
(+106%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 16.2
Bear Case
$2.75
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 4.3 to 10.2
Stabilization Target:
$9.38
(+138.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+138.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 24, 2026 4:08 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:08 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:08 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AMPY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Clint D Coghill
SELL
242489 shares
2026-03-17
Clint D Coghill
SELL
501279 shares
2026-03-16
Clint D Coghill
SELL
256232 shares
2026-03-13
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