AMPY Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AMPY - Amplify Energy Corp.
$4.04
0.03 (0.70%)
▲
5d:
+10.03%
30d:
+4.61%
90d:
-36.11%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 3, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
TODAY
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: AMPY trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -25.6% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: AMPY trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -25.6% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$13.64
Based on 7.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$8.47
52.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AMPY is currently trading at $4.04, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $3.85 to $4.08. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 3.8) compared to its historical average (9.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 25.6% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AMPY is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $3.65, while resistance sits at $4.20.
Market Sentiment: AMPY has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $8.75 (+118.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AMPY is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $3.65, while resistance sits at $4.20.
Market Sentiment: AMPY has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $8.75 (+118.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$3.85 -
$4.08
Company Quality Score
46/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
76.2%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 118.2% below Wall St target ($8.75)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$3.85 -
$4.08
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$3.65
Resistance Level
$4.20
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
3.75
Wall Street Target
$8.75
(+118.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-48.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-12.0%
Profit Margin
5.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-25.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
3.8 vs 9.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-25.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$3.61
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$3.25
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$2.92
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 4→9)
$7.10
(+77%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (16x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (4x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 15.64 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.25
Bull Case
$8.60
(+115%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 17.2
Base Case
$7.82
(+95%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 15.6
Bear Case
$2.66
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 3.7 to 9.1
Stabilization Target:
$9.74
(+142.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+142.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 04, 2026 11:29 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:29 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:29 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AMPY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Clint D Coghill
SELL
242489 shares
2026-03-17
Clint D Coghill
SELL
501279 shares
2026-03-16
Clint D Coghill
SELL
256232 shares
2026-03-13
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