AMPY Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AMPY - Amplify Energy Corp.
$4.13
0.00 (0.00%)
▲
5d:
+3.77%
30d:
-5.71%
90d:
-29.76%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
20d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: AMPY trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -22.4% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: AMPY trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -22.4% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$12.38
Based on 7.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$7.68
46.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AMPY is currently trading at $4.13, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $3.92 to $4.30. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 4.5) compared to its historical average (9.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 22.4% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AMPY is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $4.23. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: AMPY has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $9.12 (+120.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AMPY is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $4.23. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: AMPY has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $9.12 (+120.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$3.92 -
$4.30
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
83.3%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 120.9% below Wall St target ($9.12)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$3.92 -
$4.30
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$3.86
Resistance Level
$4.23
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jul 14, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
4.49
Wall Street Target
$9.13
(+120.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-48.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-12.0%
Profit Margin
5.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-22.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
4.5 vs 9.6
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-22.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$3.72
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$3.35
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$3.01
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 4→10)
$6.44
(+56%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (17x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (4x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 16.52 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.25
Bull Case
$9.09
(+120%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 18.2
Base Case
$8.26
(+100%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 16.5
Bear Case
$2.81
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 4.5 to 9.6
Stabilization Target:
$8.83
(+113.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+113.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 15, 2026 5:23 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:23 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:23 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AMPY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Clint D Coghill
SELL
242489 shares
2026-03-17
Clint D Coghill
SELL
501279 shares
2026-03-16
Clint D Coghill
SELL
256232 shares
2026-03-13
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