ARW
Arrow Electronics, Inc.
WHOLESALE-ELECTRONIC PARTS & EQUIPMENT, NEC
Arrow Electronics (ARW) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$202.19
+4.16 (+2.10%)
▲
5d:
+14.19%
30d:
-9.84%
90d:
-5.51%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
BUY
MODERATE Confidence (89%)
Quality Score
53/100
Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
30-Day Fair Range
$198.29 – $229.19
Position: SLIGHTLY LOW
Forward P/E & Valuation
7.4x
CHEAP
vs 9.8x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$216.25
+9.2% upside
Options IV & Volume
14th pct IV
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$176.42 / $224.91
Trend: Sideways
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ARW shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 9.2% decline. Moderate conviction.
Get Alerted When ARW Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$389.31
Based on 8.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$241.73
16.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ARW is currently trading at $202.19, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $198.29 to $229.19. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 7.3) compared to its historical average (9.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 9.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 195.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ARW is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $176.42, while resistance sits at $224.91.
Market Sentiment: ARW scores 61/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (14th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ARW is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $176.42, while resistance sits at $224.91.
Market Sentiment: ARW scores 61/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (14th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$198.29 -
$229.19
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
14th percentile
(COMPLACENCY WARNING)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
88.5%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$198.29 -
$229.19
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$12.40
(6.1%)
Support Level
$176.42
Resistance Level
$224.91
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Nov 11, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 14th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (61/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($216.25)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 61/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.35
Wall Street Target
$216.25
(+9.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
39.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
195.2%
Profit Margin
2.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-9.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.4 vs 9.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-9.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$179.81
(-9%)
2-Year Target
$163.27
(-18%)
3-Year Target
$148.25
(-25%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→10)
$197.79
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 12.2%)
$756.84
(+282%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.3, Growth: 12.2%)
$279.92
(+41%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.2, Growth: 12.2%)
$237.93
(+20%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (10x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 9.85 | Current EPS (TTM): $19.71
Bull Case
$292.11
(+48%)
Analyst growth 36.8%, PE expands to 10.8
Base Case
$265.55
(+34%)
Market implied 36.8%, PE stable at 9.9
Bear Case
$132.01
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.3 to 9.8
Stabilization Target:
$264.21
(+33.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+33.4%
Share ARW Analysis
Share this live ARW analysis (with rich preview card) to Reddit, StockTwits, X, or embed the chart on your blog.
bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (ARW)
Bullish
2 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bullish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Oct 14, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Avnet AVT has seen strong stock performance with a 88.5% increase in the past year, outperforming the industry and sector. The stock's P/S multiple is below industry average, indicating potential undervaluation.
Key Retail Themes:
Strong stock performance
Undervaluation based on P/S multiple
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 12, 2026 11:31 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:31 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:31 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is ARW showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Top Rated Electronics & Computer Distribution Stocks
Top-rated stocks in Electronics & Computer Distribution by analyst ratings.
Advanced ARW Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ARW price and gamma walls.
Explore More Analysis & Live Quant Tools
Part A: Deep-Dive ARW Research Pages
