American States Water (AWR) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AWR - American States Water Company
$86.48
-0.99 (-1.13%)
▼
5d:
-3.54%
30d:
-1.67%
90d:
+12.49%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: AWR is fairly valued with market pricing in 2.5% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: AWR is fairly valued with market pricing in 2.5% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$96.37
Based on 3.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$59.84
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 21.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AWR is currently trading at $86.48, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $86.87 to $89.76. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 22.8) is in line with its historical norms (21.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.5% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AWR is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $86.00. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 40/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AWR is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $86.00. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 40/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$86.87 -
$89.76
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
75.7%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($84.00)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.5% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (40/100) — watch for confirmation
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$86.87 -
$89.76
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$86.00
Resistance Level
$90.09
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
22.76
Wall Street Target
$84.00
(-2.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
11.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
25.8%
Profit Margin
20.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.5% premium
PE vs Historical
22.8 vs 21.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$88.64
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$90.86
(+5%)
3-Year Target
$93.13
(+8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 23→21)
PE COMPRESSION
$86.75
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.8, Growth: 3.3%)
$95.22
(+10%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.2, Growth: 3.3%)
$84.39
(-2%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.1, Growth: 3.3%)
$71.73
(-17%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (24x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (23x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 24.10 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.63
Bull Case
$100.72
(+17%)
Analyst growth 4.7%, PE expands to 26.5
Base Case
$91.57
(+6%)
Market implied 4.7%, PE stable at 24.1
Bear Case
$59.48
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 20.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 12, 2026 8:15 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:15 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:15 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AWR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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