American States Water (AWR) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AWR - American States Water Company
$85.05
2.91 (3.54%)
▲
5d:
+2.79%
30d:
+2.17%
90d:
-1.57%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
11d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: AWR is fairly valued with market pricing in 1.7% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: AWR is fairly valued with market pricing in 1.7% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$96.83
Based on 3.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$60.12
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 21.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AWR is currently trading at $85.05, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $81.49 to $85.08. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 22.4) is in line with its historical norms (21.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.7% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AWR is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $85.27. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 51/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AWR is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $85.27. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 51/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$81.49 -
$85.08
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
66.2%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (51/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.5%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($84.00)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.7% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (51/100) — watch for confirmation
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$81.49 -
$85.08
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$81.29
Resistance Level
$85.27
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
22.38
Wall Street Target
$84.00
(-1.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
11.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
25.8%
Profit Margin
20.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.7% premium
PE vs Historical
22.4 vs 21.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$86.50
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$87.97
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$89.46
(+5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 22→21)
PE COMPRESSION
$85.14
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 3.3%)
$93.64
(+10%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 3.3%)
$83.09
(-2%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.9, Growth: 3.3%)
$70.63
(-17%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (23x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (22x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 22.50 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.65
Bull Case
$94.07
(+11%)
Analyst growth 4.1%, PE expands to 24.8
Base Case
$85.52
(+1%)
Market implied 4.1%, PE stable at 22.5
Bear Case
$55.86
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 19.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 23, 2026 12:46 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:46 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:46 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AWR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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