AWR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AWR - American States Water Company
$84.81
-0.83 (-0.97%)
▼
5d:
-1.49%
30d:
+0.06%
90d:
+12.76%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
1d
Get Alerted When AWR Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AWR shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.8% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AWR shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.8% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$93.85
Based on 3.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$58.27
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 20.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AWR is currently trading at $84.81, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $83.12 to $87.32. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 22.6) is in line with its historical norms (20.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.8% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AWR is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $84.56. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $76.50. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AWR is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $84.56. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $76.50. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$83.12 -
$87.32
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
63.8%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading 10.7% above Wall St target ($76.50)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.8% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$83.12 -
$87.32
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$84.56
Resistance Level
$89.84
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
22.60
Wall Street Target
$76.50
(-10.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
14.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
9.1%
Profit Margin
19.7%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.8% premium
PE vs Historical
22.6 vs 20.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$88.04
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$90.50
(+6%)
3-Year Target
$93.04
(+9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 23→21)
PE COMPRESSION
$85.64
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.6, Growth: 3.1%)
$93.80
(+10%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.7, Growth: 3.1%)
$86.06
(+1%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.6, Growth: 3.1%)
$73.15
(-15%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (26x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (23x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 25.66 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.35
Bull Case
$106.98
(+25%)
Analyst growth 13.1%, PE expands to 28.2
Base Case
$97.25
(+14%)
Market implied 13.1%, PE stable at 25.7
Bear Case
$58.45
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 21.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 3:13 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:13 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:13 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is AWR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Featured in Portfolios
AWR is a key holding in these high-performance investment strategies.
Top Rated Utilities - Regulated Water Stocks
Top-rated stocks in Utilities - Regulated Water by analyst ratings.
| Stock | Analyst Consensus | Analyst Target | Tradestie Score |
|---|---|---|---|
|
WTRG
Essential Utilities Inc |
STRONG BUY
11 analysts |
$42 | 54 HOLD |
|
CWT
California Water Service… |
STRONG BUY
5 analysts |
$52 | 54 HOLD |
|
SBS
Companhia de Saneamento … |
STRONG BUY
6 analysts |
$7 | 46 HOLD |
|
AWK
American Water Works |
SELL
13 analysts |
$140 | 56 HOLD |
|
HTO
H2O America |
BUY
5 analysts |
$67 | 54 HOLD |
