AWR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AWR - American States Water Company
$79.03
1.37 (1.76%)
▲
5d:
+1.84%
30d:
+3.59%
90d:
+7.42%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: AWR is fairly valued with market pricing in 0.4% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: AWR is fairly valued with market pricing in 0.4% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$92.43
Based on 3.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$57.39
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 20.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AWR is currently trading at $79.03, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $76.10 to $78.02. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 20.7) is in line with its historical norms (20.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.4% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AWR is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $81.02. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: AWR has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AWR is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $81.02. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: AWR has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$76.10 -
$78.02
Company Quality Score
63/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
58.1%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($76.00)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.4% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$76.10 -
$78.02
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$76.30
Resistance Level
$81.02
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 23, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
20.72
Wall Street Target
$76.00
(-3.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
14.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
9.1%
Profit Margin
19.7%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.4% premium
PE vs Historical
20.7 vs 20.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$79.35
(+0%)
2-Year Target
$79.66
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$79.98
(+1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 21→21)
PE COMPRESSION
$79.15
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 2.8%)
$90.35
(+14%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.7, Growth: 2.8%)
$85.93
(+9%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.6, Growth: 2.8%)
$73.04
(-8%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (23x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (21x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 22.64 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.43
Bull Case
$95.01
(+20%)
Analyst growth 11.2%, PE expands to 24.9
Base Case
$86.38
(+9%)
Market implied 11.2%, PE stable at 22.6
Bear Case
$52.81
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 19.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 9:37 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:37 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:37 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AWR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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