AWR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AWR - American States Water Company
$76.27
-1.01 (-1.31%)
▼
5d:
-0.72%
30d:
+0.26%
90d:
-1.14%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 3, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: AWR shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: AWR shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$92.43
Based on 3.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$57.39
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 20.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AWR is currently trading at $76.27, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $75.69 to $77.77. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 20.0) is in line with its historical norms (20.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 9.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AWR is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $74.90. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: AWR has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AWR is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $74.90. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: AWR has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$75.69 -
$77.77
Company Quality Score
60/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
78.6%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($76.00)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$75.69 -
$77.77
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$74.90
Resistance Level
$77.73
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
19.99
Wall Street Target
$76.00
(-0.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
14.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
9.1%
Profit Margin
19.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
20.0 vs 20.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$75.58
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$74.90
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$74.23
(-3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 20→21)
$76.11
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.9, Growth: 2.8%)
$90.89
(+19%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.0, Growth: 2.8%)
$82.93
(+9%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.0, Growth: 2.8%)
$70.49
(-8%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (22x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (20x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 22.40 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.43
Bull Case
$93.99
(+23%)
Analyst growth 11.2%, PE expands to 24.6
Base Case
$85.44
(+12%)
Market implied 11.2%, PE stable at 22.4
Bear Case
$52.24
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 19.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 20.0 to 20.5
Stabilization Target:
$78.21
(+2.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+2.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 03, 2026 7:12 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:12 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:12 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AWR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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