American States Water (AWR) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AWR - American States Water Company
$82.82
1.63 (2.01%)
▲
5d:
+0.02%
30d:
-6.15%
90d:
-0.38%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
Get Alerted When AWR Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: AWR is fairly valued with market pricing in 0.9% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: AWR is fairly valued with market pricing in 0.9% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$96.37
Based on 3.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$59.84
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 21.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AWR is currently trading at $82.82, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $83.43 to $89.41. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 21.8) is in line with its historical norms (21.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.9% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AWR is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $80.59. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: AWR scores 79/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AWR is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $80.59. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: AWR scores 79/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$83.43 -
$89.41
Company Quality Score
70/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
86.7%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (79/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($84.00)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.9% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- CAUTION: Bottoming setup, but lagging the sector by 22% over 20 days — wait for relative strength
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$83.43 -
$89.41
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$80.59
Resistance Level
$86.09
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
21.79
Wall Street Target
$84.00
(+1.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
11.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
25.8%
Profit Margin
20.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.9% premium
PE vs Historical
21.8 vs 21.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$83.57
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$84.32
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$85.08
(+3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 22→21)
PE COMPRESSION
$82.75
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 3.3%)
$91.19
(+10%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.4, Growth: 3.3%)
$85.35
(+3%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.3, Growth: 3.3%)
$72.55
(-12%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (22x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (22x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 22.49 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.61
Bull Case
$94.01
(+14%)
Analyst growth 5.3%, PE expands to 24.7
Base Case
$85.46
(+3%)
Market implied 5.3%, PE stable at 22.5
Bear Case
$55.21
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 19.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 02, 2026 11:00 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:00 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:00 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is AWR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Top Rated Utilities - Regulated Water Stocks
Top-rated stocks in Utilities - Regulated Water by analyst ratings.
| Stock | Analyst Consensus | Analyst Target | Tradestie Score |
|---|---|---|---|
|
WTRG
Essential Utilities Inc |
STRONG BUY
11 analysts |
$42 | 57 HOLD |
|
CWT
California Water Service… |
STRONG BUY
5 analysts |
$54 | 63 BUY |
|
SBS
Companhia de Saneamento … |
STRONG BUY
6 analysts |
$7 | 52 HOLD |
|
AWK
American Water Works |
SELL
13 analysts |
$141 | 63 BUY |
|
HTO
H2O America |
BUY
5 analysts |
$67 | 59 HOLD |
