AMREP (AXR) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AXR - AMREP Corporation
$19.68
-0.56 (-2.77%)
▼
5d:
-5.02%
30d:
-15.54%
90d:
-22.82%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 16, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Sep 15, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: AXR shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: AXR shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$16.41
Based on -5.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$10.19
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AXR is currently trading at $19.68, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $20.84 to $22.98. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 11.1) compared to its historical average (12.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.2% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AXR is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $19.68. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: AXR scores 37/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $22.00 (+11.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AXR is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $19.68. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: AXR scores 37/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $22.00 (+11.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$20.84 -
$22.98
Company Quality Score
35/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
54.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (37/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($22.00)
- WARNING: Composite score 35/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$20.84 -
$22.98
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$19.68
Resistance Level
$21.66
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 16, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.06
Wall Street Target
$22.00
(+11.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-66.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-94.3%
Profit Margin
14.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
11.1 vs 12.6
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$18.85
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$18.06
(-8%)
3-Year Target
$17.30
(-12%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→13)
$19.72
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: -15.6%)
$25.77
(+31%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.1, Growth: -15.6%)
$14.35
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.4, Growth: -15.6%)
$12.19
(-38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (19x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 18.57 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.09
Bull Case
$36.36
(+85%)
Analyst growth 63.3%, PE expands to 20.4
Base Case
$33.05
(+68%)
Market implied 63.3%, PE stable at 18.6
Bear Case
$13.76
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 15.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 11.1 to 12.6
Stabilization Target:
$22.43
(+14.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+14.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 17, 2026 11:18 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:18 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:18 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is AXR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Timothy S Mcnaney
BUY
1765 shares
2026-04-21
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