AYI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

AYI - Acuity Inc.

ELECTRIC LIGHTING & WIRING EQUIPMENT
$312.84
1.44 (0.46%) ▲
5d: +5.43%
30d: +9.53%
90d: +12.98%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 3, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jun 25, 2026 20d

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡
Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AYI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.3% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$425.33
Based on 6.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$264.10
Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.6x Exit PE.

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: AYI is currently trading at $312.84, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $281.87 to $301.03. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 14.7) is in line with its historical norms (14.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.3% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.

Technical Outlook: Technically, AYI is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $314.25. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.

Market Sentiment: AYI has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $352.50 (+12.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range $281.87 - $301.03
Company Quality Score 63/100 (BUY)
Volume Confirmation HIGH
Confidence Score 68.1%

All Signals

  • BEARISH: Price extended above range
  • BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
  • BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
  • BULLISH: High volume confirmation
  • BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($352.50)
  • NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.3% annual earnings growth - fairly valued

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $281.87 - $301.03
Current vs Trading Range EXTENDED
Expected Move (7 Days) ±$16.36 (5.2%)

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $270.62
Resistance Level $314.25
Current Trend Downtrend
Technical data as of Jun 3, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 14.70
Wall Street Target $352.50 (+12.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY) 4.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY) 26.1%
Profit Margin 9.4%
Valuation Premium vs History +0.3% premium
PE vs Historical 14.7 vs 14.6 FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY): +0.3% (market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target $313.78 (+0%)
2-Year Target $314.72 (+1%)
3-Year Target $315.66 (+1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 15→15) PE COMPRESSION $313.46 (+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull: (PE: 21.9, Growth: 9.0%) $604.17 (+93%)
Base: (SPY PE: 14.7, Growth: 9.0%) $405.42 (+30%)
Bear: (PE: 12.5, Growth: 9.0%) $344.61 (+10%)
📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (22x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (15x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 21.74 | Current EPS (TTM): $13.65
Bull Case $508.82 (+69%)
Analyst growth 55.9%, PE expands to 23.9
Base Case $462.56 (+54%)
Market implied 55.9%, PE stable at 21.7
Bear Case $201.78 (-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 18.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
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Last updated: June 03, 2026 8:14 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:14 PM
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Ticker Score Recommendation Change %
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
1
Sells
0
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Laura O'shaughnessy BUY 1000 shares 2026-04-08
Karen J Holcom SELL 4974 shares 2026-01-28

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