BSM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
BSM - Black Stone Minerals, L.P.
$14.89
0.12 (0.81%)
▲
5d:
+3.69%
30d:
+2.27%
90d:
+7.12%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 03, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: BSM shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: BSM shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$26.38
Based on 13.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$16.38
9.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: BSM is currently trading at $14.89, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $14.28 to $14.79. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 12.6) is in line with its historical norms (12.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.7% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BSM is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $14.93. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: BSM scores 38/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BSM is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $14.93. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: BSM scores 38/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$14.28 -
$14.79
Company Quality Score
42/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
27.1%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (38/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($16.00)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 1.7% growth with 13.2% revenue growth
- WARNING: Composite score 42/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$14.28 -
$14.79
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$14.12
Resistance Level
$14.93
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.62
Wall Street Target
$16.00
(+7.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
13.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-12.0%
Profit Margin
67.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.7% premium
PE vs Historical
12.6 vs 12.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$15.14
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$15.40
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$15.66
(+5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→12)
PE COMPRESSION
$14.89
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 22.9%)
$43.98
(+195%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.6, Growth: 22.9%)
$27.65
(+86%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.7, Growth: 22.9%)
$23.50
(+58%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 12.16 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.20
Bull Case
$15.78
(+6%)
Analyst growth -1.7%, PE expands to 13.4
Base Case
$14.35
(-4%)
Market implied -1.7%, PE stable at 12.2
Bear Case
$9.92
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 22, 2026 5:50 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:50 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:50 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is BSM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Luke Stevens Putman
SELL
29386 shares
2026-04-06
Luke Stevens Putman
SELL
30276 shares
2026-03-05
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