BTSG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
BTSG - BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. Common Stock
$69.64
-1.79 (-2.51%)
▼
5d:
-1.3%
30d:
+14.94%
90d:
+53.63%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 31, 2026
16d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: BTSG shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 6.4% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: BTSG shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 6.4% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$103.30
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$64.14
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: BTSG is currently trading at $69.64, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $61.96 to $70.55. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 32.8) compared to its historical average (27.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 6.4% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BTSG is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $68.09. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BTSG is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $68.09. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$61.96 -
$70.55
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
60.5%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($70.18)
- NEUTRAL: PE elevated vs history but 6.4% growth expectation is conservative given 360% recent growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$61.96 -
$70.55
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$68.10
Resistance Level
$72.22
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 13, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
32.82
Wall Street Target
$70.18
(+0.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
25.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
359.8%
Profit Margin
2.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+6.4% premium
PE vs Historical
32.8 vs 27.2
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+6.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$74.10
(+6%)
2-Year Target
$78.84
(+13%)
3-Year Target
$83.88
(+21%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 33→27)
PE COMPRESSION
$69.52
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 32.8, Growth: 25.8%)
$138.75
(+99%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 25.8%)
$92.08
(+32%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 25.8%)
$78.27
(+12%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (39x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (33x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 39.22 | Forward EPS (Implied): $1.78
Bull Case
$84.09
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 41.2
Base Case
$69.64
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 39.2
Bear Case
$53.27
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 35.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 13, 2026 11:32 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:32 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:32 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is BTSG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Jennifer A Phipps
SELL
35000 shares
2026-03-04
Jon B Rousseau
SELL
220000 shares
2026-03-04
Lisa A Nalley
SELL
30000 shares
2026-03-04
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