Is CVX stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, CVX is currently a WAIT with low confidence. 📊 MIXED SIGNALS: CVX shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

What is the fair value of CVX stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for CVX to be between $194.14 and $210.07. The current price is $214.06.

What is the analyst price target for CVX?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for CVX is $221.21. This implies a potential upside of 3.3% from current levels.

Chevron (CVX) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

CVX - Chevron Corporation

PETROLEUM REFINING

$214.06

1.30 (0.61%) ▲

5d: +1.3%

30d: +8.88%

90d: +15.2%

WAIT

LOW Confidence

Protect Your CVX Gains

Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Oct 30, 2026

Smart Money Distribution

Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →

Signal fired Sep 2, 2026 at $211.78 · last confirmed Sep 9, 2026

Strength: 10.0/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: CVX shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: -16.5%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$169.15

Based on -6.3% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$105.03

Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 17.6x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: CVX is currently trading at $214.06, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $194.14 to $210.07. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 15.9) is in line with its historical norms (17.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 321.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.

Technical Outlook: Technically, CVX is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $217.40. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.

Market Sentiment: CVX scores 5/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position EXTENDED

Historical Trading Range $194.14 - $210.07

Company Quality Score 35/100 (SELL)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 23.8%

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All Signals

BEARISH: Price extended above range
BEARISH: Weak technical setup (5/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($221.21)
WARNING: Composite score 35/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $194.14 - $210.07

Current vs Trading Range EXTENDED

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $199.56

Resistance Level $217.40

Current Trend Strong Uptrend

Technical data as of Sep 11, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 15.89

Wall Street Target $221.21 (+3.3%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 53.5%

Earnings Growth (YoY) 321.9%

Profit Margin 9.8%

Valuation Discount vs History -3.4% cheaper

PE vs Historical 15.9 vs 17.6 FAIR

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): -3.4% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $206.78 (-3%)

2-Year Target $199.75 (-7%)

3-Year Target $192.96 (-10%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 16→18) $213.73 (0%)

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 20.2, Growth: -16.5%) $198.09 (+-8%)

Base: (SPY PE: 15.9, Growth: -16.5%) $156.05 (-27%)

Bear: (PE: 13.5, Growth: -16.5%) $132.64 (-38%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (21x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (16x PE) as earnings recover.

Trailing PE: 20.58 | Current EPS (TTM): $10.34

Bull Case $304.92 (+42%)

Analyst growth 30.3%, PE expands to 22.6

Base Case $277.20 (+30%)

Market implied 30.3%, PE stable at 20.6

Bear Case $144.68 (-32%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 17.5

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

💡 Upside Surprise Potential

If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 15.9 to 17.6

Stabilization Target: $237.10 (+10.8%)

PE Expansion Potential: +10.8%

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Last updated: September 12, 2026 9:07 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:07 PM

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Technical Signals Check

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

Buys

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Net

INSIDERS SELLING

Recent Transactions

R. Hewitt Pate SELL 40200 shares 2026-03-30

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