Chevron (CVX) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CVX - Chevron Corporation
$206.69
-0.41 (-0.20%)
▼
5d:
+1.1%
30d:
-2.4%
90d:
+22.96%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 30, 2026
26d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: CVX shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: CVX shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$198.68
Based on -4.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$123.36
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 17.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CVX is currently trading at $206.69, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $202.82 to $212.15. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 14.3) compared to its historical average (17.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 321.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CVX is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $200.78. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: CVX scores 63/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CVX is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $200.78. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: CVX scores 63/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$202.82 -
$212.15
Company Quality Score
66/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
78.6%
Protect Your Profits
Holding CVX? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (63/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($224.21)
- CAUTION: Bottoming setup, but lagging the sector by 16% over 20 days — wait for relative strength
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$202.82 -
$212.15
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$200.78
Resistance Level
$209.00
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.32
Wall Street Target
$224.21
(+8.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
53.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
321.9%
Profit Margin
9.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
14.3 vs 17.5
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$193.46
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$181.08
(-12%)
3-Year Target
$169.49
(-18%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→18)
$207.15
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: -13.0%)
$214.67
(+4%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.3, Growth: -13.0%)
$150.68
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.2, Growth: -13.0%)
$128.08
(-38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (20x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 20.15 | Current EPS (TTM): $10.28
Bull Case
$319.88
(+55%)
Analyst growth 40.4%, PE expands to 22.2
Base Case
$290.80
(+41%)
Market implied 40.4%, PE stable at 20.2
Bear Case
$140.83
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 17.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 14.3 to 17.5
Stabilization Target:
$252.61
(+22.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+22.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 02, 2026 11:00 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:00 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:00 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CVX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced CVX Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's CVX price and gamma walls.
