Is DOW stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, DOW is currently a WAIT with low confidence. 📊 MIXED SIGNALS: DOW shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

What is the fair value of DOW stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for DOW to be between $29.55 and $31.37. The current price is $32.35.

What is the analyst price target for DOW?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for DOW is $35.69. This implies a potential upside of 10.3% from current levels.

DOW Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

DOW - Dow Inc.

PLASTIC MATERIALS, SYNTH RESINS & NONVULCAN ELASTOMERS

$32.35

-0.55 (-1.67%) ▼

5d: +4.12%

30d: +4.69%

90d: -9.91%

WAIT

LOW Confidence

Protect Your DOW Gains

Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Oct 22, 2026

Smart Money Distribution

Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →

Signal fired Aug 7, 2026 at $29.34 · last confirmed Aug 18, 2026

Strength: 9.0/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: DOW shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: -27.9%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$23.09

Based on -11.9% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$14.34

Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: DOW is currently trading at $32.35, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $29.55 to $31.37. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 17.8) compared to its historical average (27.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 13.8% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.

Technical Outlook: Technically, DOW is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $29.55, while resistance sits at $33.40.

Market Sentiment: DOW scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $35.69 (+10.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position EXTENDED

Historical Trading Range $29.55 - $31.37

Company Quality Score 39/100 (SELL)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 26.2%

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All Signals

BEARISH: Price extended above range
BEARISH: Weak technical setup (15/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($35.69)
WARNING: Composite score 39/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $29.55 - $31.37

Current vs Trading Range EXTENDED

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $29.55

Resistance Level $33.40

Current Trend Strong Downtrend

Technical data as of Aug 21, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 17.78

Wall Street Target $35.69 (+10.3%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 19.7%

Earnings Growth (YoY) -73.3%

Profit Margin -3.1%

Valuation Discount vs History -13.8% cheaper

PE vs Historical 17.8 vs 27.7 CHEAP

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): -13.8% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $29.12 (-10%)

2-Year Target $26.20 (-19%)

3-Year Target $23.58 (-27%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 18→28) $36.74 (+14%)

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 20.1, Growth: -27.9%) $26.62 (+-18%)

Base: (SPY PE: 17.8, Growth: -27.9%) $23.58 (-27%)

Bear: (PE: 15.1, Growth: -27.9%) $20.05 (-38%)

💡 Upside Surprise Potential

If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 17.8 to 27.7

Stabilization Target: $50.40 (+55.8%)

PE Expansion Potential: +55.8%

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Last updated: August 22, 2026 10:26 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:26 PM

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

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