FOSL
Fossil Group, Inc.
WATCHES, CLOCKS, CLOCKWORK OPERATED DEVICES/PARTS
Fossil Group (FOSL) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$9.97
+2.10 (+26.68%)
▲
5d:
+30.84%
30d:
+39.44%
90d:
+78.67%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (22%)
Quality Score
35/100
Position
EXTENDED
30-Day Fair Range
$6.44 – $7.83
Position: EXTENDED
Forward P/E & Valuation
76.7x
STRETCHED
vs 48.7x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$10.38
+4.1% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$6.53 / $10.55
Trend: Strong Uptrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
⏸️ WAIT FOR BETTER ENTRY: FOSL is 27.3% above its trading range ($7.83). Market expects 16.4% annual growth, but current price leaves little margin for error. While momentum could continue, risk/reward favors waiting for a pullback.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FOSL is currently trading at $9.97, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $6.44 to $7.83. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 76.7) compared to its historical average (48.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 16.4% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FOSL is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $6.53, while resistance sits at $10.55. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 26.7% recently.
Market Sentiment: FOSL scores 5/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FOSL is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $6.53, while resistance sits at $10.55. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 26.7% recently.
Market Sentiment: FOSL scores 5/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$6.44 -
$7.83
Company Quality Score
35/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
22.4%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$6.44 -
$7.83
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support Level
$6.53
Resistance Level
$10.55
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Nov 11, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- BEARISH: Price significantly overextended (+27.3% above its trading range)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (5/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+26.7%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($10.38)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 16.4% growth with -4.9% revenue growth
- WARNING: Composite score 35/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
76.69
Wall Street Target
$10.38
(+4.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-4.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-81.7%
Profit Margin
-7.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+16.4% premium
PE vs Historical
76.7 vs 48.7
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+16.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$11.61
(+16%)
2-Year Target
$13.51
(+36%)
3-Year Target
$15.72
(+58%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 77→49)
PE COMPRESSION
$9.98
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (FOSL)
Bullish
2 Retail Mentions
StockTwits Volume
2 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Nov 11, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Fossil Group (FOSL) reported strong Q3 earnings with a 2% increase in net sales to $276 million, a 10.9 point expansion in gross margin to 59.9%, and positive free cash flow expected for the full year.
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 12, 2026 3:17 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:17 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:17 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is FOSL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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