Fossil Group (FOSL) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
FOSL - Fossil Group, Inc.
$6.79
0.04 (0.59%)
â˛
5d:
-1.31%
30d:
+10.05%
90d:
+67.65%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 12, 2026
20d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: FOSL is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 2.9% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: FOSL is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 2.9% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FOSL is currently trading at $6.79, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $5.76 to $7.10. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 51.9) is in line with its historical norms (47.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.9% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FOSL is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $6.61. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: FOSL scores 32/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $9.25 (+37.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FOSL is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $6.61. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: FOSL scores 32/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $9.25 (+37.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$5.76 -
$7.10
Company Quality Score
47/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
53.3%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (32/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 37.0% below Wall St target ($9.25)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 2.9% growth with -4.9% revenue growth
- WARNING: Composite score 47/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$5.76 -
$7.10
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$6.61
Resistance Level
$7.39
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
51.92
Wall Street Target
$9.25
(+37.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-4.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-81.7%
Profit Margin
-7.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.9% premium
PE vs Historical
51.9 vs 47.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$6.95
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$7.15
(+6%)
3-Year Target
$7.35
(+9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 52â48)
PE COMPRESSION
$6.74
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 22, 2026 10:10 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:10 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:10 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is FOSL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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