Graco (GGG) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GGG - Graco Inc
$69.28
-12.53 (-15.32%)
▼
5d:
-15.28%
30d:
-11.6%
90d:
-12.86%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 21, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: GGG is down 15.3% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: GGG is down 15.3% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$122.57
Based on 7.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$76.11
9.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 24.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GGG is currently trading at $69.28, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $75.77 to $80.55. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 19.6) compared to its historical average (24.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 14.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GGG is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $67.73. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 15.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: GGG scores 13/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $90.50 (+30.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GGG is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $67.73. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 15.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: GGG scores 13/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $90.50 (+30.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$75.77 -
$80.55
Company Quality Score
37/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
52.4%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (13/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-15.3%)
- BULLISH: Trading 30.6% below Wall St target ($90.50)
- WARNING: Composite score 36/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$75.77 -
$80.55
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$67.74
Resistance Level
$82.97
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
19.58
Wall Street Target
$90.50
(+30.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
3.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
14.5%
Profit Margin
23.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
19.6 vs 24.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$64.71
(-7%)
2-Year Target
$60.44
(-13%)
3-Year Target
$56.45
(-19%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 20→24)
$69.18
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 11.3%)
$96.75
(+40%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.6, Growth: 11.3%)
$95.40
(+38%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.6, Growth: 11.3%)
$81.09
(+17%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (26x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (20x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 26.39 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.10
Bull Case
$102.70
(+48%)
Analyst growth 14.1%, PE expands to 29.0
Base Case
$93.36
(+35%)
Market implied 14.1%, PE stable at 26.4
Bear Case
$55.63
(-20%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 22.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 19.6 to 24.0
Stabilization Target:
$84.91
(+22.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+22.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 23, 2026 4:53 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:53 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:53 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is GGG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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