Graco (GGG) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GGG - Graco Inc
$76.70
0.73 (0.96%)
▲
5d:
-1.52%
30d:
-7.02%
90d:
+3.48%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 28, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: GGG trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -3.4% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: GGG trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -3.4% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$110.86
Based on 5.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$68.84
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 24.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GGG is currently trading at $76.70, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $77.73 to $82.55. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 21.9) compared to its historical average (24.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 14.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GGG is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $75.04. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: GGG scores 72/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $91.29 (+19.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GGG is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $75.04. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: GGG scores 72/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $91.29 (+19.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$77.73 -
$82.55
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
88.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (72/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($91.29)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 72/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$77.73 -
$82.55
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$75.04
Resistance Level
$79.99
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
21.86
Wall Street Target
$91.29
(+19.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
3.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
14.5%
Profit Margin
23.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
21.9 vs 24.3
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$74.09
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$71.57
(-7%)
3-Year Target
$69.14
(-10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 22→24)
$76.84
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.9, Growth: 6.8%)
$93.55
(+22%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.2, Growth: 6.8%)
$86.30
(+13%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.1, Growth: 6.8%)
$73.36
(-4%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (24x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (22x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 24.04 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.16
Bull Case
$92.77
(+21%)
Analyst growth 11.0%, PE expands to 26.5
Base Case
$84.34
(+10%)
Market implied 11.0%, PE stable at 24.0
Bear Case
$51.66
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 20.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 21.9 to 24.3
Stabilization Target:
$85.24
(+11.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+11.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 12, 2026 10:17 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:17 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:17 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is GGG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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