Guardian Pharmacy Services (GRDN) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GRDN - Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc.
$43.64
-0.19 (-0.43%)
▼
5d:
+8.75%
30d:
+13.12%
90d:
+1.3%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: GRDN shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: GRDN shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$49.75
Based on 6.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$30.89
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GRDN is currently trading at $43.64, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $37.41 to $41.73. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 30.5) is in line with its historical norms (28.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.5% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GRDN is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $44.76. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: GRDN scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $48.83 (+11.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GRDN is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $44.76. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: GRDN scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $48.83 (+11.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$37.41 -
$41.73
Company Quality Score
36/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
27.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding GRDN? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (15/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($48.83)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.5% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 36/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$37.41 -
$41.73
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$35.90
Resistance Level
$44.76
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
30.52
Wall Street Target
$48.83
(+11.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
2.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
139.8%
Profit Margin
4.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.5% premium
PE vs Historical
30.5 vs 28.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$44.73
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$45.85
(+5%)
3-Year Target
$47.00
(+8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 31→28)
PE COMPRESSION
$43.58
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 30.5, Growth: 9.7%)
$57.64
(+32%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.2, Growth: 9.7%)
$38.10
(-13%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.1, Growth: 9.7%)
$32.38
(-26%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (42x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (31x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 41.74 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.05
Bull Case
$65.66
(+51%)
Analyst growth 36.2%, PE expands to 45.9
Base Case
$59.69
(+37%)
Market implied 36.2%, PE stable at 41.7
Bear Case
$29.80
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 35.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 12, 2026 6:13 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:13 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:13 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is GRDN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
7
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Equity Fund L.P. Cardinal
SELL
275728 shares
2026-03-20
Fred Burke
SELL
671432 shares
2026-03-20
John Ackerman
SELL
1103364 shares
2026-03-20
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