GRDN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GRDN - Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc.
$39.62
-2.27 (-5.43%)
▼
5d:
-7.61%
30d:
+3.24%
90d:
+6.32%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 10, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: GRDN is fairly valued with market pricing in 3.1% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: GRDN is fairly valued with market pricing in 3.1% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$45.21
Based on 5.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$28.07
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GRDN is currently trading at $39.62, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $37.82 to $42.19. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 30.8) is in line with its historical norms (28.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.1% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GRDN is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $37.33, while resistance sits at $42.00. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 5.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: GRDN has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $47.00 (+12.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GRDN is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $37.33, while resistance sits at $42.00. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 5.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: GRDN has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $47.00 (+12.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$37.82 -
$42.19
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
81.5%
Protect Your Profits
Holding GRDN? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-5.4%)
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($47.00)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 3.1% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -7.6% 5-day decline
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$37.82 -
$42.19
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$2.35
(5.9%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$37.33
Resistance Level
$42.00
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
30.84
Wall Street Target
$47.00
(+12.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
2.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
39.0%
Profit Margin
3.6%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.1% premium
PE vs Historical
30.8 vs 28.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$43.19
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$44.53
(+6%)
3-Year Target
$45.91
(+10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 31→28)
PE COMPRESSION
$41.83
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 30.8, Growth: 7.8%)
$52.48
(+25%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 7.8%)
$37.06
(-12%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 7.8%)
$31.50
(-25%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (34x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (31x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 34.48 | Forward EPS (Implied): $1.21
Bull Case
$50.58
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 36.2
Base Case
$41.89
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 34.5
Bear Case
$32.05
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 31.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 12:56 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:56 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:56 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is GRDN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
7
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Equity Fund L.P. Cardinal
SELL
275728 shares
2026-03-20
Fred Burke
SELL
671432 shares
2026-03-20
John Ackerman
SELL
1103364 shares
2026-03-20
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Advanced GRDN Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's GRDN price and gamma walls.
