GRDN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GRDN - Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc.
$40.79
-0.17 (-0.42%)
▼
5d:
-1.43%
30d:
-2.81%
90d:
+4.19%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 10, 2026
27d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
🚀 STRONG BUY: GRDN shows excellent value with unusually cheap options (IV 1th percentile) and market pricing in only 2.2% annual growth despite strong fundamentals. High conviction opportunity.
🚀 STRONG BUY: GRDN shows excellent value with unusually cheap options (IV 1th percentile) and market pricing in only 2.2% annual growth despite strong fundamentals. High conviction opportunity.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$45.21
Based on 5.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$28.07
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GRDN is currently trading at $40.79, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $40.03 to $42.62. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 30.2) is in line with its historical norms (28.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.2% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GRDN is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $42.00. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (1th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $47.00 (+14.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GRDN is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $42.00. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (1th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $47.00 (+14.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$40.03 -
$42.62
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
1th percentile
(COMPLACENCY WARNING)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
76.5%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 1th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($47.00)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.2% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$40.03 -
$42.62
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$3.08
(7.5%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$37.33
Resistance Level
$42.00
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
30.16
Wall Street Target
$47.00
(+14.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
2.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
39.0%
Profit Margin
3.6%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.2% premium
PE vs Historical
30.2 vs 28.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$41.86
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$42.78
(+4%)
3-Year Target
$43.72
(+7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 30→28)
PE COMPRESSION
$41.03
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 30.2, Growth: 7.8%)
$51.31
(+25%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 7.8%)
$37.06
(-10%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 7.8%)
$31.50
(-23%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (48x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (30x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 48.31 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.85
Bull Case
$72.18
(+76%)
Analyst growth 59.8%, PE expands to 53.1
Base Case
$65.61
(+60%)
Market implied 59.8%, PE stable at 48.3
Bear Case
$27.92
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 41.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 13, 2026 3:33 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:33 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:33 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is GRDN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
7
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Equity Fund L.P. Cardinal
SELL
275728 shares
2026-03-20
Fred Burke
SELL
671432 shares
2026-03-20
John Ackerman
SELL
1103364 shares
2026-03-20
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Advanced GRDN Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's GRDN price and gamma walls.
