Guardian Pharmacy Services (GRDN) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GRDN - Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc.
$39.59
0.61 (1.56%)
▲
5d:
-0.23%
30d:
-8.48%
90d:
-2.13%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 09, 2026
17d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: GRDN shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: GRDN shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$50.47
Based on 7.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$31.34
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GRDN is currently trading at $39.59, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $39.70 to $44.37. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 27.6) is in line with its historical norms (28.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 139.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GRDN is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $38.91. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 57/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (6th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $49.86 (+25.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GRDN is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $38.91. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 57/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (6th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $49.86 (+25.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$39.70 -
$44.37
Company Quality Score
60/100
(BUY)
Options IV Signal
6th percentile
(COMPLACENCY WARNING)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
83.5%
Protect Your Profits
Holding GRDN? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 6th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (57/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 25.9% below Wall St target ($49.86)
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (57/100) — watch for confirmation
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$39.70 -
$44.37
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$2.71
(6.8%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$38.91
Resistance Level
$42.26
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Oct 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
27.60
Wall Street Target
$49.86
(+25.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
2.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
139.8%
Profit Margin
4.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
27.6 vs 28.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$39.19
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$38.80
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$38.41
(-3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 28→29)
$39.66
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 27.6, Growth: 10.2%)
$53.00
(+34%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 10.2%)
$38.13
(-4%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.9, Growth: 10.2%)
$32.41
(-18%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (38x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (28x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 37.84 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.03
Bull Case
$59.71
(+51%)
Analyst growth 39.3%, PE expands to 41.6
Base Case
$54.28
(+37%)
Market implied 39.3%, PE stable at 37.8
Bear Case
$26.51
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 32.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 27.6 to 28.5
Stabilization Target:
$40.88
(+3.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+3.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 22, 2026 6:47 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:47 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:47 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is GRDN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced GRDN Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's GRDN price and gamma walls.
