GRDN
Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc.
RETAIL-DRUG STORES AND PROPRIETARY STORES
Guardian Pharmacy Services (GRDN) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$49.98
+0.13 (+0.26%)
▲
5d:
+18.75%
30d:
+25.55%
90d:
+29.95%
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70/30 Portfolio Builder
Earnings: Nov 05, 2026
0d
Protect GRDN Gains
Updated Nov 11, 12:00 AM ET
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (30%)
Quality Score
43/100
Position
EXTENDED
30-Day Fair Range
$38.60 – $44.20
Position: EXTENDED
Forward P/E & Valuation
34.9x
STRETCHED
vs 28.5x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$50.14
+0.3% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$39.45 / $50.59
Trend: Uptrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
⏸️ WAIT FOR BETTER ENTRY: GRDN is 13.1% above its trading range ($44.20). Market expects 6.9% annual growth, but current price leaves little margin for error. While momentum could continue, risk/reward favors waiting for a pullback.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$50.47
Based on 7.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$31.34
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GRDN is currently trading at $49.98, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $38.60 to $44.20. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 34.9) compared to its historical average (28.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 6.9% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GRDN is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $50.59. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: GRDN scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GRDN is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $50.59. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: GRDN scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$38.60 -
$44.20
Company Quality Score
43/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
30.0%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$38.60 -
$44.20
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$2.19
(4.4%)
Support Level
$39.45
Resistance Level
$50.59
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Nov 11, 2026
Protect Your Profits
GRDN is technically overbought (RSI 73). Consider hedging now to protect against a potential pullback while keeping your upside.
View Profit Protection PlanQuantitative Signal Breakdown
- BEARISH: Price significantly overextended (+13.1% above its trading range)
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (15/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($50.14)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 6.9% growth which is achievable
- WARNING: Composite score 43/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
34.85
Wall Street Target
$50.14
(+0.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-1.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
88.8%
Profit Margin
5.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+6.9% premium
PE vs Historical
34.9 vs 28.5
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+6.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$53.43
(+7%)
2-Year Target
$57.12
(+14%)
3-Year Target
$61.06
(+22%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 35→29)
PE COMPRESSION
$49.94
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 34.8, Growth: 10.2%)
$66.91
(+34%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 10.2%)
$38.13
(-24%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.9, Growth: 10.2%)
$32.41
(-35%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (40x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (35x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 40.20 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.24
Bull Case
$63.43
(+27%)
Analyst growth 15.7%, PE expands to 44.2
Base Case
$57.66
(+15%)
Market implied 15.7%, PE stable at 40.2
Bear Case
$33.90
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 34.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (GRDN)
Neutral
1 Retail Mentions
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Mar 24, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Trader on StockTwits expresses bullish sentiment towards $GRDN, predicting a breakout on the monthly chart.
Key Retail Themes:
Bullish sentiment towards $GRDN
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 11, 2026 7:44 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:44 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:44 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is GRDN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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