GRDN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GRDN - Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc.
$39.53
-1.67 (-4.05%)
▼
5d:
-2.27%
30d:
-6.17%
90d:
+6.55%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
2d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: GRDN is fairly valued with market pricing in 0.8% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: GRDN is fairly valued with market pricing in 0.8% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$45.21
Based on 5.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$28.07
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GRDN is currently trading at $39.53, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $39.60 to $41.58. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 29.1) is in line with its historical norms (28.4). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.8% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GRDN is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $37.03, while resistance sits at $43.27. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: GRDN has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $47.00 (+18.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GRDN is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $37.03, while resistance sits at $43.27. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: GRDN has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $47.00 (+18.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$39.60 -
$41.58
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
44th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
54.6%
Protect Your Profits
Holding GRDN? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 44th percentile)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-4.1%)
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($47.00)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.8% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$39.60 -
$41.58
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$4.39
(11.1%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$37.03
Resistance Level
$43.27
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
29.10
Wall Street Target
$47.00
(+18.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
2.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
39.0%
Profit Margin
3.6%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.8% premium
PE vs Historical
29.1 vs 28.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$39.85
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$40.17
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$40.49
(+2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 29→28)
PE COMPRESSION
$39.51
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 29.1, Growth: 7.8%)
$49.52
(+25%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.7, Growth: 7.8%)
$35.28
(-11%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.6, Growth: 7.8%)
$29.98
(-24%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (49x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (29x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 49.05 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.84
Bull Case
$73.28
(+85%)
Analyst growth 61.7%, PE expands to 54.0
Base Case
$66.62
(+69%)
Market implied 61.7%, PE stable at 49.1
Bear Case
$28.02
(-29%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 41.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 02, 2026 10:59 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:59 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:59 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is GRDN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
7
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
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SELL
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2026-03-20
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SELL
671432 shares
2026-03-20
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SELL
1103364 shares
2026-03-20
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Advanced GRDN Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's GRDN price and gamma walls.
