CON Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CON - Concentra Group Holdings Parent, Inc.
$31.65
0.03 (0.09%)
▲
5d:
+0.13%
30d:
+2.86%
90d:
+40.85%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
3d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: CON shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 7.9% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: CON shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 7.9% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$36.61
Based on 7.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$22.73
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CON is currently trading at $31.65, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $30.37 to $32.01. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 18.7) compared to its historical average (14.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 7.9% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CON is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $30.00, while resistance sits at $32.86.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CON is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $30.00, while resistance sits at $32.86.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$30.37 -
$32.01
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Options IV Signal
47th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.5%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 47th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($33.38)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 7.9% growth which is achievable
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$30.37 -
$32.01
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$2.38
(7.5%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$30.00
Resistance Level
$32.86
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
18.73
Wall Street Target
$33.38
(+5.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
13.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
29.4%
Profit Margin
8.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+7.9% premium
PE vs Historical
18.7 vs 14.9
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+7.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$34.15
(+8%)
2-Year Target
$36.85
(+16%)
3-Year Target
$39.76
(+26%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 19→15)
PE COMPRESSION
$31.64
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 11.6%)
$48.71
(+54%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 18.7, Growth: 11.6%)
$44.00
(+39%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.9, Growth: 11.6%)
$35.01
(+11%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (23x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (19x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 22.75 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.39
Bull Case
$42.29
(+34%)
Analyst growth 21.6%, PE expands to 25.0
Base Case
$38.45
(+22%)
Market implied 21.6%, PE stable at 22.8
Bear Case
$21.50
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 19.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 02, 2026 2:11 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:11 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:11 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CON showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced CON Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's CON price and gamma walls.
