CON Concentra Group Holdings Parent, Inc. SERVICES-SPECIALTY OUTPATIENT FACILITIES, NEC

CON Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

$42.67
+0.27 (+0.64%) ▲
5d: +6.28% 30d: +13.67% 90d: +23.54%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (18%)
Quality Score
41/100
Position
EXTENDED
30-Day Fair Range
$36.05 – $40.41
Position: EXTENDED
Forward P/E & Valuation
22.7x STRETCHED
vs 16.4x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$44.20
+3.6% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$39.61 / $44.22
Trend: Strong Uptrend
💡Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: CON shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$44.35
Based on 7.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$27.54
Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.4x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: CON is currently trading at $42.67, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $36.05 to $40.41. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 22.7) compared to its historical average (16.4). At these levels, the market is pricing in 11.4% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.

Technical Outlook: Technically, CON is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $39.61, while resistance sits at $44.22.

Market Sentiment: CON scores 0/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range $36.05 - $40.41
Company Quality Score 41/100 (HOLD)
Volume Confirmation HIGH
Confidence Score 18.1%

Trading Range & Key Levels

30-Day Trading Range $36.05 - $40.41
Current vs Trading Range EXTENDED
Support Level $39.61
Resistance Level $44.22
Current Trend Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of Nov 10, 2026

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Quantitative Signal Breakdown

  • BEARISH: Price extended above range (+5.6% above its trading range)
  • BEARISH: Weak technical setup (0/100)
  • BULLISH: High volume confirmation
  • NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($44.20)
  • NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 11.4% growth which is achievable
  • WARNING: Composite score 41/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 22.67
Wall Street Target $44.20 (+3.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY) 8.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY) 36.4%
Profit Margin 9.3%
Valuation Premium vs History +11.4% premium
PE vs Historical 22.7 vs 16.4 STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY): +11.4% (market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target $47.53 (+11%)
2-Year Target $52.95 (+24%)
3-Year Target $58.99 (+38%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 23→16) PE COMPRESSION $42.67 (0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull: (PE: 22.7, Growth: 11.1%) $58.53 (+37%)
Base: (SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 11.1%) $51.27 (+20%)
Bear: (PE: 16.4, Growth: 11.1%) $42.34 (-1%)
📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (25x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (23x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 25.09 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.69
Bull Case $51.94 (+22%)
Analyst growth 11.4%, PE expands to 27.6
Base Case $47.22 (+11%)
Market implied 11.4%, PE stable at 25.1
Bear Case $28.83 (-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 21.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
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Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (CON)

Bullish 2 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bearish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Nov 6, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary: Concentra reported Q3 earnings of 52 cents per share, exceeding analyst expectations with revenue of $622.1 million.
Key Retail Themes: earnings beat revenue growth
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams. View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 11, 2026 5:50 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:50 AM
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Technical Signals Check

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Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL

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