CON Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CON - Concentra Group Holdings Parent, Inc.
$28.49
-0.07 (-0.25%)
▼
5d:
+1.28%
30d:
+12.08%
90d:
+31.53%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: CON shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 5.6% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: CON shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 5.6% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$35.39
Based on 8.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$21.97
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CON is currently trading at $28.49, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $24.96 to $27.55. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 16.8) compared to its historical average (14.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 5.6% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CON is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $28.70. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: CON has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $31.50 (+10.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CON is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $28.70. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: CON has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $31.50 (+10.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$24.96 -
$27.55
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
66th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
60.8%
Protect Your Profits
CON is technically overbought (RSI 77). Consider hedging now to protect against a potential pullback while keeping your upside.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 66th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($31.50)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 5.6% growth which is achievable
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$24.96 -
$27.55
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$2.44
(8.5%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$24.65
Resistance Level
$28.70
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 17, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.77
Wall Street Target
$31.50
(+10.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
13.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
29.4%
Profit Margin
8.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+5.6% premium
PE vs Historical
16.8 vs 14.2
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+5.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$30.09
(+6%)
2-Year Target
$31.77
(+12%)
3-Year Target
$33.55
(+18%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 17→14)
PE COMPRESSION
$28.41
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 12.0%)
$51.93
(+82%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.8, Growth: 12.0%)
$39.98
(+40%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.2, Growth: 12.0%)
$33.86
(+19%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (21x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (17x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 20.55 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.39
Bull Case
$38.40
(+35%)
Analyst growth 22.2%, PE expands to 22.6
Base Case
$34.91
(+23%)
Market implied 22.2%, PE stable at 20.6
Bear Case
$19.42
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 17.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 8:04 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:04 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:04 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CON showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's CON price and gamma walls.
