HLMN
Hillman Solutions Corp. Common Stock
CUTLERY, HANDTOOLS & GENERAL HARDWARE
Hillman Solutions (HLMN) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$8.02
-0.15 (-1.84%)
âŧ
5d:
-8.66%
30d:
+12.96%
90d:
-8.86%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (46%)
Quality Score
39/100
Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
30-Day Fair Range
$7.00 â $8.12
Position: SLIGHTLY HIGH
Forward P/E & Valuation
12.6x
FAIR
vs 12.3x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$11.31
+41.1% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$7.46 / $9.06
Trend: Strong Uptrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: HLMN is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 0.6% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$10.40
Based on 5.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$6.46
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HLMN is currently trading at $8.02, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $7.00 to $8.12. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 12.6) is in line with its historical norms (12.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.6% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HLMN is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $7.46, while resistance sits at $9.05.
Market Sentiment: HLMN scores 8/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $11.31 (+41.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HLMN is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $7.46, while resistance sits at $9.05.
Market Sentiment: HLMN scores 8/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $11.31 (+41.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$7.00 -
$8.12
Company Quality Score
39/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
46.2%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$7.00 -
$8.12
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support Level
$7.46
Resistance Level
$9.06
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Nov 11, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (8/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 41.1% below Wall St target ($11.31)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 0.6% growth with 7.7% revenue growth
- WARNING: Composite score 39/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.57
Wall Street Target
$11.31
(+41.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
7.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-74.4%
Profit Margin
1.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.6% premium
PE vs Historical
12.6 vs 12.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$8.07
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$8.12
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$8.17
(+2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13â12)
PE COMPRESSION
$7.99
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 7.6%)
$15.76
(+97%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.6, Growth: 7.6%)
$9.98
(+24%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.7, Growth: 7.6%)
$8.48
(+6%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 13.09 | Forward EPS (Implied): $0.61
Bull Case
$9.68
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 13.7
Base Case
$8.02
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 13.1
Bear Case
$6.14
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 11.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (HLMN)
Bullish
1 Retail Mentions
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Aug 4, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Traders on StockTwits express a bullish sentiment towards $HLMN following the release of second-quarter revenue results that surpassed expectations and full-year revenue guidance was raised by 2.2%.
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 12, 2026 8:14 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:14 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:14 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HLMN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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