HLMN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HLMN - Hillman Solutions Corp. Common Stock
$8.31
0.44 (5.59%)
▲
5d:
+3.23%
30d:
+2.34%
90d:
+5.73%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 03, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: HLMN appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -4.3% annual earnings decline despite 210% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: HLMN appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -4.3% annual earnings decline despite 210% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$15.86
Based on 12.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$9.85
15.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HLMN is currently trading at $8.31, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $7.81 to $8.25. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 11.2) compared to its historical average (12.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 209.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HLMN is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $8.34. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 5.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $12.00 (+52.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HLMN is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $8.34. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 5.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $12.00 (+52.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$7.81 -
$8.25
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
84.3%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+5.6%)
- BULLISH: Trading 52.5% below Wall St target ($12.00)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$7.81 -
$8.25
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$7.73
Resistance Level
$8.34
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.22
Wall Street Target
$12.00
(+52.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
3.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
209.7%
Profit Margin
2.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
11.2 vs 12.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$7.53
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$7.21
(-8%)
3-Year Target
$6.90
(-12%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→13)
$7.87
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 20.4%)
$25.38
(+222%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.2, Growth: 20.4%)
$13.73
(+75%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.5, Growth: 20.4%)
$11.67
(+48%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (44x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 43.89 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.18
Bull Case
$17.38
(+121%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 48.3
Base Case
$15.80
(+101%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 43.9
Bear Case
$5.37
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 37.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 11.2 to 12.8
Stabilization Target:
$8.98
(+14.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+14.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 3:56 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:56 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:56 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HLMN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Amanda Kitzberger
SELL
11804 shares
2026-03-10
Scott Kelley Moore
SELL
1451 shares
2026-03-10
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