HLMN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HLMN - Hillman Solutions Corp. Common Stock
$7.78
-0.11 (-1.39%)
▼
5d:
-2.51%
30d:
+7.31%
90d:
-3.95%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: HLMN shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 5.2% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: HLMN shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 5.2% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$15.97
Based on 12.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$9.92
21.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 13.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HLMN is currently trading at $7.78, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $7.22 to $7.75. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 11.1) compared to its historical average (13.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 209.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HLMN is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $7.72. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: HLMN has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $12.12 (+55.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HLMN is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $7.72. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: HLMN has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $12.12 (+55.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$7.22 -
$7.75
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.9%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 55.8% below Wall St target ($12.12)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$7.22 -
$7.75
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$7.07
Resistance Level
$7.73
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.11
Wall Street Target
$12.13
(+55.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
3.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
209.7%
Profit Margin
2.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
11.1 vs 13.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$7.38
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$6.99
(-10%)
3-Year Target
$6.63
(-15%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→13)
$7.75
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 20.1%)
$26.43
(+240%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.1, Growth: 20.1%)
$13.49
(+73%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.4, Growth: 20.1%)
$11.46
(+47%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (44x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 43.83 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.18
Bull Case
$17.36
(+123%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 48.2
Base Case
$15.78
(+103%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 43.8
Bear Case
$5.37
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 37.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 11.1 to 13.0
Stabilization Target:
$9.10
(+17.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+17.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 7:37 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:37 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:37 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HLMN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Amanda Kitzberger
SELL
11804 shares
2026-03-10
Scott Kelley Moore
SELL
1451 shares
2026-03-10
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