HLMN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HLMN - Hillman Solutions Corp. Common Stock
$7.87
0.00 (0.06%)
▲
5d:
+1.09%
30d:
+2.01%
90d:
-10.63%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
20d
Get Alerted When HLMN Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: HLMN shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.4% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: HLMN shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.4% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$15.81
Based on 12.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$9.82
19.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HLMN is currently trading at $7.87, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $7.52 to $8.19. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 11.3) compared to its historical average (12.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 209.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HLMN is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $7.72. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $12.00 (+52.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HLMN is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $7.72. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $12.00 (+52.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$7.52 -
$8.19
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
72.4%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 52.7% below Wall St target ($12.00)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$7.52 -
$8.19
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$7.07
Resistance Level
$7.73
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.26
Wall Street Target
$12.00
(+52.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
3.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
209.7%
Profit Margin
2.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
11.3 vs 12.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$7.51
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$7.18
(-9%)
3-Year Target
$6.87
(-13%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→13)
$7.87
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 20.1%)
$26.36
(+235%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.3, Growth: 20.1%)
$13.63
(+73%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.6, Growth: 20.1%)
$11.58
(+47%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (43x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 42.94 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.18
Bull Case
$17.01
(+116%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 47.2
Base Case
$15.46
(+97%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 42.9
Bear Case
$5.26
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 36.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 11.3 to 12.9
Stabilization Target:
$9.01
(+14.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+14.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 14, 2026 10:42 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:42 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:42 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is HLMN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Amanda Kitzberger
SELL
11804 shares
2026-03-10
Scott Kelley Moore
SELL
1451 shares
2026-03-10
Top Rated Tools & Accessories Stocks
Top-rated stocks in Tools & Accessories by analyst ratings.
| Stock | Analyst Consensus | Analyst Target | Tradestie Score |
|---|---|---|---|
|
SWK
Stanley Black & Decker I… |
HOLD
20 analysts |
$90 | 56 HOLD |
|
RBC
RBC Bearings Incorporated |
BUY
9 analysts |
$620 | 59 HOLD |
|
LECO
Lincoln Electric Holding… |
BUY
10 analysts |
$297 | 60 BUY |
|
TKR
Timken Company |
BUY
12 analysts |
$139 | 50 HOLD |
|
SNA
Snap-On Inc |
HOLD
11 analysts |
$393 | 59 HOLD |
