Hillman Solutions (HLMN) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HLMN - Hillman Solutions Corp. Common Stock
$7.36
0.10 (1.38%)
▲
5d:
+1.38%
30d:
+3.08%
90d:
-7.65%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 02, 2026
9d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: HLMN shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: HLMN shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$13.77
Based on 10.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$8.55
13.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HLMN is currently trading at $7.36, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $7.00 to $7.25. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 10.8) compared to its historical average (12.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 34.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HLMN is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $7.46. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 47/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $11.75 (+59.6%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HLMN is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $7.46. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 47/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $11.75 (+59.6%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$7.00 -
$7.25
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
51.0%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (47/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 59.6% below Wall St target ($11.75)
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (47/100) — watch for confirmation
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$7.00 -
$7.25
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$6.88
Resistance Level
$7.46
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.80
Wall Street Target
$11.75
(+59.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
34.8%
Profit Margin
2.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
10.8 vs 12.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$7.04
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$6.73
(-9%)
3-Year Target
$6.43
(-13%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→12)
$7.39
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 16.7%)
$21.54
(+193%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.8, Growth: 16.7%)
$11.71
(+59%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.2, Growth: 16.7%)
$9.96
(+35%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (36x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 36.30 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.20
Bull Case
$15.97
(+117%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 39.9
Base Case
$14.52
(+97%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 36.3
Bear Case
$4.94
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 30.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.8 to 12.4
Stabilization Target:
$8.45
(+14.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+14.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 23, 2026 6:01 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:01 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:01 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HLMN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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