Macy's (M) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

M - Macy's Inc.

RETAIL-DEPARTMENT STORES
$24.17
0.74 (3.16%) ▲
5d: -0.21%
30d: +8.68%
90d: +3.38%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
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Analysis Updated: Oct 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Dec 02, 2026
Smart Money Distribution

Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →

Signal fired Oct 12, 2026 at $22.99 · last confirmed Oct 22, 2026

Strength: 10.0/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡
Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: M shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$21.74
Based on 0.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$13.50
Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.9x Exit PE.

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: M is currently trading at $24.17, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $22.16 to $23.44. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 11.3) compared to its historical average (9.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 4.5% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.

Technical Outlook: Technically, M is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $24.71. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.2% recently.

Market Sentiment: M scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range $22.16 - $23.44
Company Quality Score 38/100 (SELL)
Volume Confirmation HIGH
Confidence Score 29.5%

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All Signals

  • BEARISH: Price extended above range
  • BEARISH: Weak technical setup (15/100)
  • BULLISH: High volume confirmation
  • BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.2%)
  • NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($23.10)
  • NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 4.5% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
  • WARNING: Composite score 38/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $22.16 - $23.44
Current vs Trading Range EXTENDED

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $21.75
Resistance Level $24.71
Current Trend Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of Oct 22, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 11.30
Wall Street Target $23.10 (-4.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY) 1.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY) 100.0%
Profit Margin 3.3%
Valuation Premium vs History +4.5% premium
PE vs Historical 11.3 vs 9.9 FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY): +4.5% (market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target $25.26 (+5%)
2-Year Target $26.39 (+9%)
3-Year Target $27.58 (+14%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 11→10) PE COMPRESSION $24.17 (0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull: (PE: 19.9, Growth: -2.9%) $38.90 (+61%)
Base: (SPY PE: 11.3, Growth: -2.9%) $22.13 (-8%)
Bear: (PE: 9.6, Growth: -2.9%) $18.81 (-22%)
📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 8.58 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.73
Bull Case $20.20 (-16%)
Analyst growth -21.6%, PE expands to 9.4
Base Case $18.36 (-24%)
Market implied -21.6%, PE stable at 8.6
Bear Case $15.93 (-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
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Last updated: October 23, 2026 12:49 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:49 AM
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Ticker Score Recommendation Change %
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL

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