Macy's (M) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

M - Macy's Inc.

RETAIL-DEPARTMENT STORES
$22.08
1.58 (7.71%) ▲
5d: -1.74%
30d: -7.19%
90d: -11.82%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Protect Your M Gains
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Sep 10, 2026 0d
Smart Money Distribution

Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →

Signal fired Sep 2, 2026 at $22.43 · last confirmed Sep 11, 2026

Strength: 7.3/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡
Bottom Line:
â„šī¸ NEUTRAL: M is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 1.7% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$21.52
Based on 0.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$13.36
Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.8x Exit PE.

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: M is currently trading at $22.08, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $21.91 to $24.67. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.3) is in line with its historical norms (9.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.7% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.

Technical Outlook: Technically, M is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $19.77, while resistance sits at $23.38. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 7.7% recently.

Market Sentiment: M scores 31/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range $21.91 - $24.67
Company Quality Score 49/100 (HOLD)
Volume Confirmation HIGH
Confidence Score 58.1%

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All Signals

  • BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
  • BEARISH: Weak technical setup (31/100)
  • BULLISH: High volume confirmation
  • BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+7.7%)
  • NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($23.41)
  • NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.7% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
  • WARNING: Composite score 49/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $21.91 - $24.67
Current vs Trading Range SLIGHTLY LOW

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $19.77
Resistance Level $23.38
Current Trend Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of Sep 11, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 10.32
Wall Street Target $23.41 (+6.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY) 2.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY) 76.9%
Profit Margin 2.9%
Valuation Premium vs History +1.7% premium
PE vs Historical 10.3 vs 9.8 FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY): +1.7% (market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target $22.46 (+2%)
2-Year Target $22.84 (+3%)
3-Year Target $23.23 (+5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 10→10) PE COMPRESSION $22.06 (0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull: (PE: 20.2, Growth: -2.9%) $39.51 (+79%)
Base: (SPY PE: 10.3, Growth: -2.9%) $20.21 (-8%)
Bear: (PE: 8.8, Growth: -2.9%) $17.18 (-22%)
📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 8.87 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.31
Bull Case $20.89 (-5%)
Analyst growth -7.4%, PE expands to 9.8
Base Case $18.99 (-14%)
Market implied -7.4%, PE stable at 8.9
Bear Case $13.94 (-37%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
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Last updated: September 12, 2026 7:05 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:05 PM
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Ticker Score Recommendation Change %
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
8
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Antony Spring SELL 50044 shares 2026-04-06
Danielle L Kirgan SELL 10010 shares 2026-04-06
Olivier Bron SELL 7228 shares 2026-04-06

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