MGY Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MGY - Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation Class A Common Stock
$24.68
-0.45 (-1.79%)
▼
5d:
+5.47%
30d:
-1.32%
90d:
-20.69%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 3, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
TODAY
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: MGY trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -15.1% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: MGY trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -15.1% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$61.70
Based on 8.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$38.31
35.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MGY is currently trading at $24.68, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $24.81 to $26.61. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 7.6) compared to its historical average (12.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 15.1% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MGY is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $23.40, while resistance sits at $26.46.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $33.00 (+31.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MGY is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $23.40, while resistance sits at $26.46.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $33.00 (+31.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$24.81 -
$26.61
Company Quality Score
51/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 31.3% below Wall St target ($33.00)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$24.81 -
$26.61
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$23.40
Resistance Level
$26.46
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.58
Wall Street Target
$33.00
(+31.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
2.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-0.3%
Profit Margin
24.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-15.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.6 vs 12.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-15.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$22.62
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$20.36
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$18.32
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→12)
$29.98
(+19%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 13.0%)
$99.11
(+294%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.6, Growth: 13.0%)
$36.23
(+44%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.4, Growth: 13.0%)
$30.80
(+23%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (15x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 14.86 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.73
Bull Case
$54.21
(+116%)
Analyst growth 91.7%, PE expands to 16.4
Base Case
$49.28
(+96%)
Market implied 91.7%, PE stable at 14.9
Bear Case
$17.48
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.6 to 12.4
Stabilization Target:
$41.12
(+63.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+63.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 04, 2026 11:30 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:30 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:30 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
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Technical Signals Check
Is MGY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
5
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Edward P Djerejian
SELL
18000 shares
2026-03-10
Brian Corales
SELL
33000 shares
2026-03-09
Christopher G Stavros
SELL
119954 shares
2026-03-09
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