MGY Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MGY - Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation Class A Common Stock
$26.45
-0.38 (-1.43%)
▼
5d:
-2.49%
30d:
-9.56%
90d:
-15.48%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: MGY shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: MGY shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$27.86
Based on -3.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$17.30
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MGY is currently trading at $26.45, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $26.95 to $28.99. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 10.2) compared to its historical average (12.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 7.0% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MGY is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $26.84. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: MGY has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $33.82 (+26.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MGY is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $26.84. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: MGY has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $33.82 (+26.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$26.95 -
$28.99
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 26.1% below Wall St target ($33.82)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$26.95 -
$28.99
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$26.84
Resistance Level
$28.30
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.24
Wall Street Target
$33.82
(+26.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
2.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-0.3%
Profit Margin
24.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-7.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
10.2 vs 12.7
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-7.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$24.95
(-7%)
2-Year Target
$23.21
(-14%)
3-Year Target
$21.58
(-20%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→13)
$26.77
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: -10.7%)
$41.60
(+55%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.2, Growth: -10.7%)
$19.56
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.7, Growth: -10.7%)
$16.63
(-38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (16x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 15.68 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.73
Bull Case
$45.20
(+69%)
Analyst growth 51.5%, PE expands to 17.3
Base Case
$41.09
(+53%)
Market implied 51.5%, PE stable at 15.7
Bear Case
$18.45
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.2 to 12.7
Stabilization Target:
$33.28
(+24.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+24.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 24, 2026 1:27 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:27 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:27 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is MGY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
5
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Edward P Djerejian
SELL
18000 shares
2026-03-10
Brian Corales
SELL
33000 shares
2026-03-09
Christopher G Stavros
SELL
119954 shares
2026-03-09
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