Magnolia Oil & Gas (MGY) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MGY - Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation Class A Common Stock
$27.75
0.05 (0.18%)
▲
5d:
+1.98%
30d:
+5.27%
90d:
+1.91%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
Get Alerted When MGY Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: MGY shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: MGY shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$51.52
Based on 6.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$31.99
13.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MGY is currently trading at $27.75, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $25.48 to $27.68. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 8.5) compared to its historical average (11.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 10.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 136.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MGY is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $28.27. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 48/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $32.94 (+18.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MGY is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $28.27. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 48/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $32.94 (+18.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$25.48 -
$27.68
Company Quality Score
47/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
48.6%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (48/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($32.94)
- WARNING: Composite score 47/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$25.48 -
$27.68
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$26.19
Resistance Level
$28.27
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.54
Wall Street Target
$32.94
(+18.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
50.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
136.6%
Profit Margin
28.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-10.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.5 vs 11.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-10.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$24.97
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$22.48
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$20.23
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→12)
$27.95
(+1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 8.2%)
$83.08
(+199%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.5, Growth: 8.2%)
$35.18
(+27%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.3, Growth: 8.2%)
$29.90
(+8%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.10 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.29
Bull Case
$43.23
(+56%)
Analyst growth 41.9%, PE expands to 13.3
Base Case
$39.30
(+42%)
Market implied 41.9%, PE stable at 12.1
Bear Case
$18.84
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.5 to 11.8
Stabilization Target:
$38.34
(+38.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+38.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 13, 2026 3:14 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:14 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:14 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is MGY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Top Rated Oil & Gas E&P Stocks
Top-rated stocks in Oil & Gas E&P by analyst ratings.
| Stock | Analyst Consensus | Analyst Target | Tradestie Score |
|---|---|---|---|
|
FANG
Diamondback Energy Inc |
STRONG BUY
31 analysts |
$233 | 58 HOLD |
|
EXE
Expand Energy Corporation |
STRONG BUY
27 analysts |
$125 | 44 HOLD |
|
CTRA
Coterra Energy Inc |
STRONG BUY
26 analysts |
$37 | 53 HOLD |
|
DVN
Devon Energy Corporation |
STRONG BUY
27 analysts |
$60 | 44 HOLD |
|
COP
ConocoPhillips |
BUY
27 analysts |
$145 | 47 HOLD |
