MGY
Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation Class A Common Stock
CRUDE PETROLEUM & NATURAL GAS
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Magnolia Oil & Gas (MGY) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$24.16
+0.38 (+1.60%)
▲
5d:
+2.72%
30d:
-2.74%
90d:
-7.93%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence (80%)
Quality Score
55/100
Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
30-Day Fair Range
$23.71 – $25.87
Position: SLIGHTLY LOW
Forward P/E & Valuation
7.8x
CHEAP
vs 11.0x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$32.82
+35.9% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$21.90 / $26.70
Trend: Uptrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 HOLD: MGY shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$60.92
Based on 12.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$37.83
36.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MGY is currently trading at $24.16, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $23.71 to $25.87. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 7.8) compared to its historical average (11.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 10.9% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MGY is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $21.90, while resistance sits at $26.70.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 51/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $32.82 (+35.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MGY is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $21.90, while resistance sits at $26.70.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 51/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $32.82 (+35.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$23.71 -
$25.87
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$23.71 -
$25.87
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support Level
$21.90
Resistance Level
$26.70
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Nov 12, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (51/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 35.9% below Wall St target ($32.82)
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (51/100) — watch for confirmation
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.81
Wall Street Target
$32.82
(+35.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
58.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-13.6%
Profit Margin
25.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-10.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.8 vs 11.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-10.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$21.74
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$19.57
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$17.61
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→11)
$24.82
(+3%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 21.0%)
$61.86
(+156%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.8, Growth: 21.0%)
$24.31
(+1%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.6, Growth: 21.0%)
$20.67
(-15%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 10.62 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.24
Bull Case
$36.15
(+50%)
Analyst growth 38.2%, PE expands to 11.7
Base Case
$32.86
(+36%)
Market implied 38.2%, PE stable at 10.6
Bear Case
$16.17
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.8 to 11.0
Stabilization Target:
$34.05
(+40.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+40.9%
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (MGY)
Bullish
2 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bullish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Oct 2, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Truist Securities analyst Gabe Daoud maintains a Buy rating on Magnolia Oil & Gas (MGY) with a raised price target of $35.
Key Retail Themes:
Analyst coverage
Price target update
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 13, 2026 4:49 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:49 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:49 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MGY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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