Magnolia Oil & Gas (MGY) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MGY - Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation Class A Common Stock
$26.15
0.88 (3.48%)
▲
5d:
+3.16%
30d:
+5.7%
90d:
+8.87%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
10d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: MGY shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: MGY shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$44.27
Based on 4.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$27.49
4.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MGY is currently trading at $26.15, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $23.77 to $26.00. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 8.3) compared to its historical average (11.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 9.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 136.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MGY is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $26.48. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: MGY scores 20/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $33.17 (+26.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MGY is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $26.48. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: MGY scores 20/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $33.17 (+26.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$23.77 -
$26.00
Company Quality Score
38/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
33.3%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (20/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.5%)
- BULLISH: Trading 26.8% below Wall St target ($33.17)
- WARNING: Composite score 38/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$23.77 -
$26.00
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$24.41
Resistance Level
$26.48
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 23, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.30
Wall Street Target
$33.17
(+26.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
50.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
136.6%
Profit Margin
28.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-9.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.3 vs 11.3
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-9.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$23.61
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$21.32
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$19.25
(-26%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→11)
$26.22
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 4.9%)
$72.24
(+176%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.3, Growth: 4.9%)
$30.18
(+15%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.1, Growth: 4.9%)
$25.66
(-2%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 11.13 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.27
Bull Case
$38.59
(+48%)
Analyst growth 38.8%, PE expands to 12.3
Base Case
$35.08
(+34%)
Market implied 38.8%, PE stable at 11.1
Bear Case
$17.18
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.3 to 11.3
Stabilization Target:
$35.61
(+36.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+36.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 23, 2026 11:38 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:38 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:38 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MGY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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