Magnolia Oil & Gas (MGY) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MGY - Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation Class A Common Stock
$24.07
0.00 (0.00%)
▲
5d:
-0.17%
30d:
-12.09%
90d:
-3.76%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
30d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: MGY shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: MGY shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$44.49
Based on 4.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$27.62
12.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MGY is currently trading at $24.07, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $24.41 to $27.53. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 7.7) compared to its historical average (11.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 12.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 136.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MGY is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $23.15, while resistance sits at $25.11.
Market Sentiment: MGY scores 84/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $32.75 (+36.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MGY is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $23.15, while resistance sits at $25.11.
Market Sentiment: MGY scores 84/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $32.75 (+36.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$24.41 -
$27.53
Company Quality Score
68/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
90.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (84/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 36.1% below Wall St target ($32.75)
- CAUTION: Bottoming setup, but lagging the sector by 26% over 20 days — wait for relative strength
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$24.41 -
$27.53
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$23.15
Resistance Level
$25.11
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.70
Wall Street Target
$32.75
(+36.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
50.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
136.6%
Profit Margin
28.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-12.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.7 vs 11.5
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-12.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$21.66
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$19.50
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$17.55
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→12)
$26.21
(+9%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 4.7%)
$73.30
(+205%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.7, Growth: 4.7%)
$27.66
(+15%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.5, Growth: 4.7%)
$23.51
(-2%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (10x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 10.24 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.35
Bull Case
$35.23
(+46%)
Analyst growth 33.0%, PE expands to 11.3
Base Case
$32.02
(+33%)
Market implied 33.0%, PE stable at 10.2
Bear Case
$16.37
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.7 to 11.5
Stabilization Target:
$35.96
(+49.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+49.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 03, 2026 9:07 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:07 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:07 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MGY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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