Movado Group (MOV) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MOV - Movado Group, Inc.
$32.75
0.21 (0.65%)
▲
5d:
-2.62%
30d:
-10.64%
90d:
-14.47%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 26, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: MOV shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: MOV shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$57.88
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$35.94
8.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 19.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MOV is currently trading at $32.75, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $33.43 to $37.06. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 21.3) compared to its historical average (19.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.3% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MOV is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $32.26. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: MOV scores 18/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (5th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $47.50 (+45.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MOV is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $32.26. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: MOV scores 18/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (5th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $47.50 (+45.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$33.43 -
$37.06
Company Quality Score
48/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
5th percentile
(COMPLACENCY WARNING)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
66.2%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 5th percentile)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (18/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 45.0% below Wall St target ($47.50)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 3.3% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 48/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$33.43 -
$37.06
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$1.50
(4.6%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$32.26
Resistance Level
$35.11
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
21.27
Wall Street Target
$47.50
(+45.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
307.7%
Profit Margin
6.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.3% premium
PE vs Historical
21.3 vs 19.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$33.83
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$34.95
(+7%)
3-Year Target
$36.10
(+10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 21→19)
PE COMPRESSION
$32.76
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.3, Growth: 34.3%)
$79.27
(+142%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.2, Growth: 34.3%)
$75.18
(+130%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.1, Growth: 34.3%)
$63.90
(+95%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 18.08 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.80
Bull Case
$30.62
(-7%)
Analyst growth -14.4%, PE expands to 19.9
Base Case
$27.84
(-15%)
Market implied -14.4%, PE stable at 18.1
Bear Case
$22.13
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 15.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 12, 2026 8:19 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:19 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:19 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MOV showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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