MATADOR RESOURCES (MTDR) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MTDR - MATADOR RESOURCES COMPANY
$53.50
0.54 (1.02%)
â˛
5d:
+3.78%
30d:
-10.2%
90d:
+7.3%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 20, 2026
15d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: MTDR is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -8.7% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: MTDR is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -8.7% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$113.65
Based on 10.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$70.57
24.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MTDR is currently trading at $53.50, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $52.95 to $60.12. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 5.8) compared to its historical average (7.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 8.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 160.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MTDR is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $50.39, while resistance sits at $57.38.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 57/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $70.05 (+30.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MTDR is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $50.39, while resistance sits at $57.38.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 57/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $70.05 (+30.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$52.95 -
$60.12
Company Quality Score
49/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (57/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 30.9% below Wall St target ($70.05)
- WARNING: Composite score 49/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$52.95 -
$60.12
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$50.39
Resistance Level
$57.38
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
5.84
Wall Street Target
$70.05
(+30.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
26.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
160.6%
Profit Margin
18.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-8.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
5.8 vs 7.7
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-8.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$48.85
(-9%)
2-Year Target
$44.60
(-17%)
3-Year Target
$40.72
(-24%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6â8)
$53.67
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 16.2%)
$292.99
(+448%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 5.8, Growth: 16.2%)
$83.90
(+57%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.0, Growth: 16.2%)
$71.31
(+33%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (9x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (6x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 9.08 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.83
Bull Case
$91.52
(+71%)
Analyst growth 57.1%, PE expands to 10.0
Base Case
$83.20
(+56%)
Market implied 57.1%, PE stable at 9.1
Bear Case
$36.01
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 5.8 to 7.7
Stabilization Target:
$70.52
(+31.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+31.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 03, 2026 8:31 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:31 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:31 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MTDR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
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Sells
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Net
NEUTRAL
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