MATADOR RESOURCES (MTDR) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$53.47
+0.66 (+1.25%)
â˛
5d:
+6.07%
30d:
-0.56%
90d:
-4.42%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (83%)
Quality Score
51/100
Position
FAIR
30-Day Fair Range
$51.82 â $58.42
Position: FAIR
Forward P/E & Valuation
5.3x
CHEAP
vs 7.4x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$70.45
+31.8% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$48.21 / $59.82
Trend: Uptrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: MTDR is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -10.8% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$123.12
Based on 10.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$76.45
30.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MTDR is currently trading at $53.47, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $51.82 to $58.42. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 5.3) compared to its historical average (7.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 10.8% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MTDR is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $48.21, while resistance sits at $59.82.
Market Sentiment: MTDR scores 61/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $70.45 (+31.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MTDR is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $48.21, while resistance sits at $59.82.
Market Sentiment: MTDR scores 61/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $70.45 (+31.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$51.82 -
$58.42
Company Quality Score
51/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
83.3%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$51.82 -
$58.42
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support Level
$48.21
Resistance Level
$59.82
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Nov 13, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (61/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 31.8% below Wall St target ($70.45)
- WARNING: Composite score 50/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
5.26
Wall Street Target
$70.45
(+31.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
52.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-2.0%
Profit Margin
16.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-10.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
5.3 vs 7.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-10.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$48.12
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$43.31
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$38.98
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 5â7)
$54.84
(+3%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 16.9%)
$322.46
(+503%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 5.3, Growth: 16.9%)
$85.41
(+60%)
Bear:
(PE: 4.5, Growth: 16.9%)
$72.59
(+36%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (9x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (5x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 9.19 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.79
Bull Case
$102.74
(+92%)
Analyst growth 75.6%, PE expands to 10.1
Base Case
$93.40
(+75%)
Market implied 75.6%, PE stable at 9.2
Bear Case
$36.18
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 5.3 to 7.4
Stabilization Target:
$75.22
(+40.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+40.7%
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (MTDR)
Bullish
2 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bearish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Nov 13, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
StockTwits messages indicate bullish sentiment towards $MTDR, with traders highlighting insider buying as a supportive factor.
Key Retail Themes:
Insider buying as a bullish indicator
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 13, 2026 7:13 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:13 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:13 PM
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Technical Signals Check
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Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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