MATADOR RESOURCES (MTDR) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MTDR - MATADOR RESOURCES COMPANY
$61.05
-0.57 (-0.93%)
▼
5d:
+2.23%
30d:
+16.26%
90d:
+13.86%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 20, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: MTDR shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: MTDR shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$97.83
Based on 7.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$60.74
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MTDR is currently trading at $61.05, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $51.44 to $59.82. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 7.1) is in line with its historical norms (7.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 160.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MTDR is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $62.20. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MTDR scores 25/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $68.68 (+12.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MTDR is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $62.20. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MTDR scores 25/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $68.68 (+12.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$51.44 -
$59.82
Company Quality Score
42/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
26.2%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($68.68)
- WARNING: Composite score 42/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$51.44 -
$59.82
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$56.05
Resistance Level
$62.20
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.06
Wall Street Target
$68.68
(+12.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
26.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
160.6%
Profit Margin
18.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.1 vs 7.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$59.04
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$57.09
(-7%)
3-Year Target
$55.20
(-10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→8)
$61.00
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 11.5%)
$241.91
(+296%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.1, Growth: 11.5%)
$84.66
(+39%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.0, Growth: 11.5%)
$71.96
(+18%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (10x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 10.41 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.92
Bull Case
$99.02
(+62%)
Analyst growth 46.1%, PE expands to 11.5
Base Case
$90.02
(+48%)
Market implied 46.1%, PE stable at 10.4
Bear Case
$41.90
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.1 to 7.8
Stabilization Target:
$67.46
(+10.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+10.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 13, 2026 3:36 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:36 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:36 PM
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| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is MTDR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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