MTDR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MTDR - MATADOR RESOURCES COMPANY
$50.38
-0.28 (-0.55%)
▼
5d:
-1.95%
30d:
-10.18%
90d:
-14.39%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 28, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: MTDR shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: MTDR shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$109.74
Based on 8.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$68.14
26.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MTDR is currently trading at $50.38, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $51.47 to $57.91. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 5.7) compared to its historical average (8.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 11.6% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MTDR is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $51.93. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: MTDR has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $72.63 (+44.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MTDR is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $51.93. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: MTDR has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $72.63 (+44.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$51.47 -
$57.91
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 44.2% below Wall St target ($72.63)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$51.47 -
$57.91
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$51.93
Resistance Level
$56.98
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
5.73
Wall Street Target
$72.63
(+44.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-6.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-9.6%
Profit Margin
13.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-11.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
5.7 vs 8.3
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-11.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$45.34
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$40.81
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$36.73
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6→8)
$53.20
(+6%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 13.1%)
$276.69
(+449%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 5.7, Growth: 13.1%)
$72.80
(+45%)
Bear:
(PE: 4.9, Growth: 13.1%)
$61.88
(+23%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (6x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 13.06 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.88
Bull Case
$111.50
(+121%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 14.4
Base Case
$101.36
(+101%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 13.1
Bear Case
$34.46
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 5.7 to 8.3
Stabilization Target:
$72.97
(+44.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+44.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 6:26 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:26 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:26 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is MTDR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
1
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Recent Transactions
Joseph Wm Foran
BUY
468 shares
2026-02-27
Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr.
SELL
2026-01-09
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