MATADOR RESOURCES (MTDR) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MTDR - MATADOR RESOURCES COMPANY
$59.96
3.17 (5.58%)
▲
5d:
+4.24%
30d:
+13.2%
90d:
+27.11%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 03, 2026
9d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: MTDR shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: MTDR shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$144.86
Based on 13.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$89.95
33.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MTDR is currently trading at $59.96, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $52.09 to $58.16. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 5.9) compared to its historical average (7.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 8.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 160.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MTDR is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $60.80. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 5.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: MTDR scores 5/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $71.10 (+18.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MTDR is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $60.80. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 5.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: MTDR scores 5/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $71.10 (+18.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$52.09 -
$58.16
Company Quality Score
28/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
31.0%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (5/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+5.6%)
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($71.10)
- WARNING: Composite score 28/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$52.09 -
$58.16
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$53.52
Resistance Level
$60.80
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 23, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
5.88
Wall Street Target
$71.10
(+18.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
26.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
160.6%
Profit Margin
18.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-8.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
5.9 vs 7.5
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-8.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$55.16
(-8%)
2-Year Target
$50.75
(-15%)
3-Year Target
$46.69
(-22%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6→8)
$59.53
(-1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 23.7%)
$382.92
(+539%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 5.9, Growth: 23.7%)
$113.42
(+89%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.0, Growth: 23.7%)
$96.41
(+61%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (10x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (6x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 9.91 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.73
Bull Case
$111.12
(+85%)
Analyst growth 77.9%, PE expands to 10.9
Base Case
$101.02
(+69%)
Market implied 77.9%, PE stable at 9.9
Bear Case
$38.62
(-36%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 5.9 to 7.5
Stabilization Target:
$76.45
(+27.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+27.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 24, 2026 6:23 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:23 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:23 AM
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| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is MTDR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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