MTDR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MTDR - MATADOR RESOURCES COMPANY
$57.46
-0.92 (-1.58%)
▼
5d:
+2.72%
30d:
+13.09%
90d:
+1.45%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: MTDR shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: MTDR shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$104.14
Based on 9.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$64.67
11.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MTDR is currently trading at $57.46, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $48.75 to $55.47. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 6.9) compared to its historical average (7.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 160.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MTDR is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $49.60, while resistance sits at $60.38.
Market Sentiment: MTDR scores 0/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $68.37 (+17.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MTDR is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $49.60, while resistance sits at $60.38.
Market Sentiment: MTDR scores 0/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $68.37 (+17.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$48.75 -
$55.47
Company Quality Score
40/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
26.2%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (0/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($68.37)
- WARNING: Composite score 40/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$48.75 -
$55.47
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$49.60
Resistance Level
$60.38
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.93
Wall Street Target
$68.37
(+17.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
26.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
160.6%
Profit Margin
18.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
6.9 vs 7.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$55.93
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$53.58
(-8%)
3-Year Target
$51.33
(-12%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→8)
$58.48
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 14.9%)
$256.63
(+340%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.9, Growth: 14.9%)
$88.66
(+52%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.9, Growth: 14.9%)
$75.36
(+29%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (10x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 9.81 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.91
Bull Case
$90.89
(+56%)
Analyst growth 42.5%, PE expands to 10.8
Base Case
$82.63
(+42%)
Market implied 42.5%, PE stable at 9.8
Bear Case
$39.44
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 6.9 to 7.9
Stabilization Target:
$66.51
(+13.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+13.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 24, 2026 10:46 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:46 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:46 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is MTDR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Joseph Wm Foran
BUY
468 shares
2026-02-27
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