MTDR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MTDR - MATADOR RESOURCES COMPANY
$48.83
-1.06 (-2.12%)
▼
5d:
+3.52%
30d:
-2.69%
90d:
-21.7%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
TODAY
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: MTDR shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: MTDR shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$136.86
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$84.98
42.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MTDR is currently trading at $48.83, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $48.78 to $53.11. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 5.6) compared to its historical average (8.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 11.4% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MTDR is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $45.44, while resistance sits at $56.20.
Market Sentiment: MTDR has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $68.63 (+40.6%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MTDR is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $45.44, while resistance sits at $56.20.
Market Sentiment: MTDR has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $68.63 (+40.6%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$48.78 -
$53.11
Company Quality Score
39/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 40.6% below Wall St target ($68.63)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$48.78 -
$53.11
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$45.44
Resistance Level
$56.20
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
5.56
Wall Street Target
$68.63
(+40.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-6.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-9.6%
Profit Margin
13.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-11.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
5.6 vs 8.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-11.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$43.95
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$39.55
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$35.60
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6→8)
$51.23
(+5%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 26.9%)
$372.20
(+662%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 5.6, Growth: 26.9%)
$99.80
(+104%)
Bear:
(PE: 4.7, Growth: 26.9%)
$84.83
(+74%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (6x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.86 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.88
Bull Case
$109.76
(+125%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 14.1
Base Case
$99.78
(+104%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 12.9
Bear Case
$33.93
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 5.6 to 8.0
Stabilization Target:
$70.28
(+43.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+43.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 04, 2026 4:48 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:48 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:48 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is MTDR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Joseph Wm Foran
BUY
468 shares
2026-02-27
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