NOAH Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NOAH - Noah Holdings Limited American Depositary Shares (each representing five (5) Ordinary shares)
$7.79
0.01 (0.13%)
▲
5d:
-1.64%
30d:
-6.59%
90d:
-24.66%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 24, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: NOAH shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: NOAH shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$18.98
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$11.78
33.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 1.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NOAH is currently trading at $7.79, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $7.93 to $8.48. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 0.8) compared to its historical average (1.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 31.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NOAH is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $7.76. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 59/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $10.63 (+36.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NOAH is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $7.76. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 59/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $10.63 (+36.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$7.93 -
$8.48
Company Quality Score
48/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (59/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 36.5% below Wall St target ($10.63)
- WARNING: Composite score 48/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$7.93 -
$8.48
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$7.76
Resistance Level
$8.24
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
0.80
Wall Street Target
$10.63
(+36.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-1.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
31.8%
Profit Margin
22.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
0.8 vs 1.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$7.34
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$6.91
(-11%)
3-Year Target
$6.51
(-16%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 1→1)
$8.15
(+5%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 89.5%)
$204.17
(+2521%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 0.8, Growth: 89.5%)
$8.00
(+3%)
Bear:
(PE: 0.7, Growth: 89.5%)
$6.80
(-13%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (6x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (1x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 6.27 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.24
Bull Case
$17.12
(+120%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 6.9
Base Case
$15.56
(+100%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 6.3
Bear Case
$5.29
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 5.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 0.8 to 1.0
Stabilization Target:
$9.74
(+25.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+25.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 02, 2026 11:01 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:01 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:01 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NOAH showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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