NOAH Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NOAH - Noah Holdings Limited American Depositary Shares (each representing five (5) Ordinary shares)
$8.77
0.07 (0.80%)
▲
5d:
-14.94%
30d:
-13.34%
90d:
-13.25%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 26, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: NOAH is down 14.9% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: NOAH is down 14.9% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$13.86
Based on 5.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$8.61
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 1.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NOAH is currently trading at $8.77, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $9.46 to $10.50. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 0.8) compared to its historical average (1.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.1% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NOAH is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $9.98. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $12.28 (+41.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NOAH is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $9.98. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $12.28 (+41.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$9.46 -
$10.50
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 41.2% below Wall St target ($12.28)
- WARNING: Recommendation downgraded due to -14.9% 5-day decline - wait for stabilization
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$9.46 -
$10.50
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$9.98
Resistance Level
$10.88
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
0.83
Wall Street Target
$12.28
(+41.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
1.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-14.3%
Profit Margin
20.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
0.8 vs 1.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$8.17
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$7.67
(-12%)
3-Year Target
$7.20
(-17%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 1→1)
$8.64
(-1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 7.7%)
$283.96
(+3164%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 0.8, Growth: 7.7%)
$10.87
(+25%)
Bear:
(PE: 0.7, Growth: 7.7%)
$9.24
(+6%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (8x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (1x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 7.93 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.12
Bull Case
$19.54
(+125%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 8.7
Base Case
$17.76
(+104%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 7.9
Bear Case
$6.04
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 6.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 0.8 to 1.0
Stabilization Target:
$10.44
(+20.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+20.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 14, 2026 9:52 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:52 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:52 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NOAH showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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