NOAH
Noah Holdings Limited American Depositary Shares (each representing five (5) Ordinary shares)
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NOAH Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$6.74
-0.03 (-0.44%)
▼
5d:
-4.4%
30d:
-9.89%
90d:
-21.72%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
BUY
MODERATE Confidence (91%)
Quality Score
54/100
Position
OVERSOLD
30-Day Fair Range
$6.78 – $7.46
Position: OVERSOLD
Forward P/E & Valuation
0.7x
CHEAP
vs 0.9x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$10.31
+53.0% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$6.57 / $7.19
Trend: Strong Downtrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: NOAH shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 8.9% decline. Moderate conviction.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$9.78
Based on 2.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$6.07
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 0.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NOAH is currently trading at $6.74, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $6.78 to $7.46. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 0.7) compared to its historical average (0.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 8.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 31.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NOAH is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $6.57. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: NOAH scores 68/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $10.31 (+53.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NOAH is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $6.57. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: NOAH scores 68/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $10.31 (+53.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$6.78 -
$7.46
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
90.5%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$6.78 -
$7.46
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support Level
$6.57
Resistance Level
$7.19
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Nov 11, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (68/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 53.0% below Wall St target ($10.31)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 68/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
0.70
Wall Street Target
$10.31
(+53.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-1.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
31.8%
Profit Margin
22.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-8.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
0.7 vs 0.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-8.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$6.14
(-9%)
2-Year Target
$5.59
(-17%)
3-Year Target
$5.10
(-24%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 1→1)
$6.52
(-3%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 1.1%)
$196.96
(+2822%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 0.7, Growth: 1.1%)
$6.97
(+4%)
Bear:
(PE: 0.6, Growth: 1.1%)
$5.93
(-12%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (6x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (1x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 5.59 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.21
Bull Case
$14.89
(+121%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 6.2
Base Case
$13.54
(+101%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 5.6
Bear Case
$4.60
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 4.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 0.7 to 0.9
Stabilization Target:
$8.63
(+28.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+28.0%
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (NOAH)
Bullish
1 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bullish
Last Tracked
Aug 4, 2024
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Reddit & WallStreetBets discussions on NOAH are bullish (sentiment score +0.10) across 1 tracked comments.
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 12, 2026 6:42 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:42 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:42 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NOAH showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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