NOAH Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NOAH - Noah Holdings Limited American Depositary Shares (each representing five (5) Ordinary shares)
$8.80
0.02 (0.23%)
â˛
5d:
+1.97%
30d:
+1.85%
90d:
-16.03%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 25, 2026
1d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: NOAH is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -4.7% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: NOAH is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -4.7% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$13.69
Based on 5.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$8.50
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 1.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NOAH is currently trading at $8.80, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $8.51 to $8.85. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 0.8) compared to its historical average (1.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.7% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NOAH is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $8.92. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: NOAH scores 73/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $12.14 (+37.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NOAH is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $8.92. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: NOAH scores 73/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $12.14 (+37.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$8.51 -
$8.85
Company Quality Score
51/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
76.2%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (73/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 37.9% below Wall St target ($12.14)
- WARNING: Composite score 51/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$8.51 -
$8.85
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$8.42
Resistance Level
$8.92
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
0.85
Wall Street Target
$12.14
(+37.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
1.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-14.3%
Profit Margin
20.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
0.9 vs 1.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$8.39
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$7.99
(-9%)
3-Year Target
$7.62
(-13%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 1â1)
$9.00
(+2%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 7.3%)
$257.95
(+2831%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 0.8, Growth: 7.3%)
$10.87
(+24%)
Bear:
(PE: 0.7, Growth: 7.3%)
$9.24
(+5%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (8x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (1x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 7.77 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.13
Bull Case
$19.32
(+120%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 8.6
Base Case
$17.56
(+100%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 7.8
Bear Case
$5.97
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 6.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 0.8 to 1.0
Stabilization Target:
$10.40
(+18.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+18.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 23, 2026 5:51 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:51 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:51 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NOAH showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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