NOAH Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NOAH - Noah Holdings Limited American Depositary Shares (each representing five (5) Ordinary shares)
$10.33
0.03 (0.29%)
▲
5d:
-1.81%
30d:
-1.43%
90d:
-10.1%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 27, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: NOAH shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.6% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: NOAH shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.6% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$13.86
Based on 5.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$8.61
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 1.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NOAH is currently trading at $10.33, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $10.12 to $10.48. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 1.0) is in line with its historical norms (1.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.6% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NOAH is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $9.98, while resistance sits at $10.88.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $12.29 (+19.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NOAH is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $9.98, while resistance sits at $10.88.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $12.29 (+19.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$10.12 -
$10.48
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
70.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($12.29)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$10.12 -
$10.48
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$9.98
Resistance Level
$10.88
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
0.99
Wall Street Target
$12.29
(+19.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
1.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-14.3%
Profit Margin
20.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
1.0 vs 1.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$10.27
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$10.21
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$10.15
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 1→1)
$10.25
(-1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 7.7%)
$283.96
(+2649%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 1.0, Growth: 7.7%)
$12.90
(+25%)
Bear:
(PE: 0.8, Growth: 7.7%)
$10.97
(+6%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (9x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (1x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 9.12 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.13
Bull Case
$22.66
(+119%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 10.0
Base Case
$20.60
(+99%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 9.1
Bear Case
$7.00
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 1.0 to 1.0
Stabilization Target:
$10.44
(+1.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+1.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 24, 2026 8:35 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:35 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:35 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NOAH showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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