NOAH Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NOAH - Noah Holdings Limited American Depositary Shares (each representing five (5) Ordinary shares)
$8.14
-0.03 (-0.37%)
▼
5d:
-2.16%
30d:
-5.02%
90d:
-19.57%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 25, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: NOAH shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: NOAH shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$5.43
Based on -10.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$3.37
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 1.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NOAH is currently trading at $8.14, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $8.33 to $8.75. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 0.8) compared to its historical average (1.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 31.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NOAH is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $8.01. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: NOAH scores 13/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $10.85 (+33.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NOAH is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $8.01. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: NOAH scores 13/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $10.85 (+33.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$8.33 -
$8.75
Company Quality Score
31/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (13/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 33.3% below Wall St target ($10.85)
- WARNING: Composite score 31/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$8.33 -
$8.75
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$8.01
Resistance Level
$8.73
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
0.84
Wall Street Target
$10.85
(+33.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-1.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
31.8%
Profit Margin
22.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
0.8 vs 1.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$7.77
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$7.41
(-9%)
3-Year Target
$7.07
(-13%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 1→1)
$8.44
(+4%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: -24.8%)
$194.55
(+2290%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 0.8, Growth: -24.8%)
$8.08
(-1%)
Bear:
(PE: 0.7, Growth: -24.8%)
$6.87
(-16%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (7x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (1x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 6.54 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.25
Bull Case
$17.97
(+121%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 7.2
Base Case
$16.34
(+101%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 6.5
Bear Case
$5.56
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 5.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 0.8 to 1.0
Stabilization Target:
$9.72
(+19.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+19.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 12, 2026 8:00 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:00 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:00 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is NOAH showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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