OWL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
OWL - Blue Owl Capital Inc.
$9.23
-0.30 (-3.15%)
▼
5d:
-4.65%
30d:
-5.14%
90d:
+1.21%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 9.9/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: OWL shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 6.2% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: OWL shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 6.2% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$16.04
Based on 7.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$9.96
7.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: OWL is currently trading at $9.23, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $9.47 to $10.10. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 9.4) compared to its historical average (11.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 636.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, OWL is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $9.17. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $12.93 (+40.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, OWL is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $9.17. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $12.93 (+40.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$9.47 -
$10.10
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.1%)
- BULLISH: Trading 40.1% below Wall St target ($12.93)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$9.47 -
$10.10
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$9.17
Resistance Level
$10.74
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.40
Wall Street Target
$12.93
(+40.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
10.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
636.6%
Profit Margin
3.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.4 vs 11.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$8.66
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$8.12
(-12%)
3-Year Target
$7.62
(-18%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→11)
$9.23
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 11.0%)
$29.27
(+217%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.4, Growth: 11.0%)
$12.64
(+37%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.0, Growth: 11.0%)
$10.74
(+16%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (10x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 9.78 | Forward EPS (Implied): $0.94
Bull Case
$11.15
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 10.3
Base Case
$9.23
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 9.8
Bear Case
$7.06
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 8.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.4 to 11.4
Stabilization Target:
$11.19
(+21.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+21.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 8:22 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:22 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:22 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is OWL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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