NWE
NorthWestern Energy Group, Inc. Common Stock
ELECTRIC & OTHER SERVICES COMBINED
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NorthWestern Energy Group (NWE) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$85.60
+0.63 (+0.74%)
▲
5d:
+4.36%
30d:
+14.91%
90d:
+19.2%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (25%)
Quality Score
28/100
Position
EXTENDED
30-Day Fair Range
$73.32 – $81.73
Position: EXTENDED
Forward P/E & Valuation
21.6x
STRETCHED
vs 17.8x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$79.21
-7.5% vs target
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$79.20 / $86.34
Trend: Uptrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: NWE shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$90.57
Based on 5.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$56.23
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 17.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NWE is currently trading at $85.60, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $73.32 to $81.73. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 21.6) compared to its historical average (17.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 6.7% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NWE is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $86.34. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: NWE scores 5/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NWE is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $86.34. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: NWE scores 5/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$73.32 -
$81.73
Company Quality Score
28/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
24.8%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$73.32 -
$81.73
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support Level
$79.20
Resistance Level
$86.34
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Nov 12, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (5/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading above Wall St target ($79.21)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 6.7% growth with 9.5% revenue growth
- WARNING: Composite score 28/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
21.57
Wall Street Target
$79.21
(-7.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-19.4%
Profit Margin
9.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+6.7% premium
PE vs Historical
21.6 vs 17.8
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+6.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$91.34
(+7%)
2-Year Target
$97.45
(+14%)
3-Year Target
$103.98
(+22%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 22→18)
PE COMPRESSION
$85.80
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.6, Growth: 6.2%)
$102.65
(+20%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 6.2%)
$94.50
(+10%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.9, Growth: 6.2%)
$80.33
(-6%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (32x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (22x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 32.06 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.65
Bull Case
$139.96
(+64%)
Analyst growth 49.7%, PE expands to 35.3
Base Case
$127.24
(+49%)
Market implied 49.7%, PE stable at 32.1
Bear Case
$57.78
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 27.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
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Last updated: November 12, 2026 8:13 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:13 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:13 PM
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Insider Activity (6 Months)
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