Obsidian Energy (OBE) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$9.73
+0.25 (+2.64%)
▲
5d:
+5.3%
30d:
-15.46%
90d:
-8.81%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
BUY
HIGH Confidence (91%)
Quality Score
62/100
Position
OVERSOLD
30-Day Fair Range
$10.04 – $11.94
Position: OVERSOLD
Forward P/E & Valuation
3.4x
CHEAP
vs 30.3x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$14.74
+51.5% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$8.80 / $11.83
Trend: Uptrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
✅ BUY SIGNAL: OBE trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -51.6% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$137.78
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$85.55
88.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: OBE is currently trading at $9.73, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $10.04 to $11.94. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 3.4) compared to its historical average (30.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 51.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 8.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, OBE is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $8.80, while resistance sits at $11.83.
Market Sentiment: OBE scores 75/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $14.74 (+51.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, OBE is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $8.80, while resistance sits at $11.83.
Market Sentiment: OBE scores 75/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $14.74 (+51.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$10.04 -
$11.94
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
90.5%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$10.04 -
$11.94
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support Level
$8.80
Resistance Level
$11.83
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Nov 12, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 51.5% below Wall St target ($14.74)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 75/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
3.44
Wall Street Target
$14.74
(+51.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
31.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
8.3%
Profit Margin
5.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-51.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
3.4 vs 30.3
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-51.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$8.76
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$7.88
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$7.09
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 3→30)
$62.51
(+543%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 61.7%)
$189.69
(+1850%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 3.4, Growth: 61.7%)
$32.84
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 2.9, Growth: 61.7%)
$27.91
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (31x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (3x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 30.58 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.31
Bull Case
$20.86
(+114%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 33.6
Base Case
$18.96
(+95%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 30.6
Bear Case
$6.45
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 26.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 3.4 to 30.3
Stabilization Target:
$85.75
(+781.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+781.3%
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (OBE)
Bullish
2 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bullish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Nov 3, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
A bullish StockTwits user expressed confidence in the undervalued status of $OBE, purchasing shares after a price drop.
Key Retail Themes:
buy the dip
undervalued
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 13, 2026 4:25 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:25 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:25 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is OBE showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
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