OMDA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
OMDA - Omada Health, Inc. Common Stock
$17.98
0.34 (1.93%)
▲
5d:
+4.9%
30d:
+8.84%
90d:
+33.09%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 8.1/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: OMDA shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: OMDA shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$23.20
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$14.40
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: OMDA is currently trading at $17.98, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $16.63 to $17.98. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 37.7) compared to its historical average (65.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 16.8% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, OMDA is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $16.71, while resistance sits at $18.56.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $22.92 (+27.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, OMDA is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $16.71, while resistance sits at $18.56.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $22.92 (+27.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$16.63 -
$17.98
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
46th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
54.6%
Protect Your Profits
Holding OMDA? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 46th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 27.5% below Wall St target ($22.92)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$16.63 -
$17.98
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$1.67
(9.3%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$16.71
Resistance Level
$18.56
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
37.73
Wall Street Target
$22.92
(+27.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
42.0%
Profit Margin
-2.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-16.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
37.7 vs 65.6
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-16.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$16.18
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$14.56
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$13.11
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 38→66)
$22.79
(+27%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 37.7, Growth: 45.9%)
$55.84
(+211%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 45.9%)
$32.23
(+79%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 45.9%)
$27.40
(+52%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 37.7 to 65.6
Stabilization Target:
$31.26
(+73.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+73.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 2:46 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:46 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:46 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is OMDA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
6
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Wei-Li Shao
SELL
2829 shares
2026-04-08
Steven L Cook
SELL
1884 shares
2026-03-13
Sean P Duffy
SELL
4063 shares
2026-03-09
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Advanced OMDA Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's OMDA price and gamma walls.