Omada Health (OMDA) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
OMDA - Omada Health, Inc. Common Stock
$19.66
-1.84 (-8.56%)
▼
5d:
-11.8%
30d:
-17.53%
90d:
+10.89%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: OMDA shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: OMDA shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$27.07
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$16.81
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: OMDA is currently trading at $19.66, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $21.26 to $24.56. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 35.4) compared to its historical average (57.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 15.0% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, OMDA is showing support break momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $19.31. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 8.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: OMDA scores 30/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $28.25 (+43.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, OMDA is showing support break momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $19.31. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 8.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: OMDA scores 30/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $28.25 (+43.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$21.26 -
$24.56
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
52.4%
Protect Your Profits
Holding OMDA? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (30/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-8.6%)
- BULLISH: Trading 43.7% below Wall St target ($28.25)
- CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-11.8%) - monitor closely
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$21.26 -
$24.56
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$19.31
Resistance Level
$24.60
Current Trend
Support Break
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
35.35
Wall Street Target
$28.25
(+43.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
43.1%
Profit Margin
1.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-15.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
35.4 vs 57.6
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-15.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$17.69
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$15.92
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$14.33
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 35→58)
$23.35
(+19%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 35.4, Growth: 27.5%)
$40.79
(+108%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.2, Growth: 27.5%)
$23.27
(+18%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.1, Growth: 27.5%)
$19.78
(+1%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 32.09 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.67
Bull Case
$19.63
(0%)
Analyst growth -17.0%, PE expands to 35.3
Base Case
$17.85
(-9%)
Market implied -17.0%, PE stable at 32.1
Bear Case
$14.62
(-26%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 27.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 35.4 to 57.6
Stabilization Target:
$32.03
(+62.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+62.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 11, 2026 7:52 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:52 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:52 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is OMDA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Wei-Li Shao
SELL
2829 shares
2026-04-08
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