Is OMDA stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, OMDA is currently a WAIT with low confidence. 📊 MIXED SIGNALS: OMDA shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

What is the fair value of OMDA stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for OMDA to be between $19.34 and $21.34. The current price is $19.50.

What is the analyst price target for OMDA?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for OMDA is $28.42. This implies a potential upside of 44.5% from current levels.

Omada Health (OMDA) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

OMDA - Omada Health, Inc. Common Stock

SERVICES-HEALTH SERVICES

$19.50

-0.16 (-0.81%) ▼

5d: +4.45%

30d: -5.75%

90d: -5.02%

WAIT

LOW Confidence

Protect Your OMDA Gains

Analysis Updated: Oct 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Nov 05, 2026 13d

Smart Money Accumulation

Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →

Signal fired Oct 14, 2026 at $18.22 · last confirmed Oct 20, 2026

Strength: 6.6/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: OMDA shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 25.0%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$27.07

Based on 14.5% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$16.81

Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: OMDA is currently trading at $19.50, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $19.34 to $21.34. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 35.4) compared to its historical average (53.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 12.9% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.

Technical Outlook: Technically, OMDA is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $17.48, while resistance sits at $22.00.

Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 50/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $28.42 (+44.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position OVERSOLD

Historical Trading Range $19.34 - $21.34

Company Quality Score 50/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 79.5%

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All Signals

BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (50/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BULLISH: Trading 44.5% below Wall St target ($28.42)
WARNING: Composite score 50/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $19.34 - $21.34

Current vs Trading Range OVERSOLD

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $17.48

Resistance Level $22.00

Current Trend Sideways

Technical data as of Oct 21, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 35.35

Wall Street Target $28.42 (+44.5%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 43.1%

Profit Margin 1.4%

Valuation Discount vs History -12.9% cheaper

PE vs Historical 35.4 vs 53.5 CHEAP

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): -12.9% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $17.69 (-10%)

2-Year Target $15.92 (-19%)

3-Year Target $14.33 (-27%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 35→54) $21.69 (+10%)

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 35.4, Growth: 27.5%) $40.79 (+108%)

Base: (SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 27.5%) $22.92 (+17%)

Bear: (PE: 16.9, Growth: 27.5%) $19.48 (-1%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (81x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (35x PE) as earnings recover.

Trailing PE: 80.58 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.24

Bull Case $42.55 (+116%)

Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 88.6

Base Case $38.68 (+97%)

Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 80.6

Bear Case $13.15 (-33%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 68.5

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

💡 Upside Surprise Potential

If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 35.4 to 53.5

Stabilization Target: $29.75 (+51.3%)

PE Expansion Potential: +51.3%

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Last updated: October 22, 2026 9:30 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:30 AM

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

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Advanced OMDA Option Strategies

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