Omada Health (OMDA) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$15.37
+0.30 (+2.03%)
▲
5d:
-20.92%
30d:
-16.04%
90d:
-36.95%
Open in Live Scanner
70/30 Portfolio Builder
Earnings: Nov 05, 2026
0d
Protect OMDA Gains
Updated Nov 10, 12:00 AM ET
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (57%)
Quality Score
43/100
Position
OVERSOLD
30-Day Fair Range
$17.24 – $20.68
Position: OVERSOLD
Forward P/E & Valuation
24.2x
CHEAP
vs 51.8x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$27.75
+84.3% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$14.33 / $19.91
Trend: Downtrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: OMDA is down 20.9% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Smart Money Accumulation
Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →
Signal fired Nov 6, 2026 at $15.18 · last confirmed Nov 10, 2026
Strength: 7.7/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$20.41
Based on 5.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$12.68
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: OMDA is currently trading at $15.37, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $17.24 to $20.68. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 24.2) compared to its historical average (51.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 22.4% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, OMDA is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $14.32, while resistance sits at $19.91.
Market Sentiment: OMDA scores 33/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $27.75 (+84.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, OMDA is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $14.32, while resistance sits at $19.91.
Market Sentiment: OMDA scores 33/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $27.75 (+84.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$17.24 -
$20.68
Company Quality Score
43/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$17.24 -
$20.68
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support Level
$14.33
Resistance Level
$19.91
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Nov 10, 2026
Protect Your Profits
Holding OMDA? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanQuantitative Signal Breakdown
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (33/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 84.3% below Wall St target ($27.75)
- WARNING: Composite score 43/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
24.21
Wall Street Target
$27.75
(+84.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
34.2%
Profit Margin
4.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-22.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
24.2 vs 51.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-22.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$13.55
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$12.20
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$10.98
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 24→52)
$23.49
(+56%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 24.2, Growth: 7.2%)
$18.55
(+23%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 7.2%)
$15.21
(+1%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.9, Growth: 7.2%)
$12.93
(-14%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (38x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (24x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 37.73 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.40
Bull Case
$25.81
(+71%)
Analyst growth 55.5%, PE expands to 41.5
Base Case
$23.46
(+56%)
Market implied 55.5%, PE stable at 37.7
Bear Case
$10.26
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 32.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 24.2 to 51.8
Stabilization Target:
$32.22
(+113.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+113.9%
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (OMDA)
Bearish
2 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bearish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Nov 6, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Omada Health (OMDA) reported record Q3 revenue of $91 million, up 34% YoY, and net income of nearly $7 million. Gross margin expanded significantly to 76% GAAP and 78% non-GAAP.
Key Retail Themes:
Strong financial performance
Membership growth and retention
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 11, 2026 9:58 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:58 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:58 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is OMDA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
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