Riley Exploration Permian (REPX) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
REPX - Riley Exploration Permian, Inc.
$48.34
-0.60 (-1.23%)
▼
5d:
+4.11%
30d:
+20.25%
90d:
+34.17%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
12d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: REPX shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: REPX shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$82.45
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$51.19
5.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 5.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: REPX is currently trading at $48.34, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $40.86 to $46.80. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 5.9) compared to its historical average (5.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 4.3% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, REPX is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $43.81, while resistance sits at $50.00.
Market Sentiment: REPX scores 0/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, REPX is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $43.81, while resistance sits at $50.00.
Market Sentiment: REPX scores 0/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$40.86 -
$46.80
Company Quality Score
32/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
24.8%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (0/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($46.00)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 4.3% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 32/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$40.86 -
$46.80
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$43.81
Resistance Level
$50.00
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
5.94
Wall Street Target
$46.00
(-4.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
94.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
185.4%
Profit Margin
24.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+4.3% premium
PE vs Historical
5.9 vs 5.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+4.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$50.42
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$52.59
(+9%)
3-Year Target
$54.85
(+14%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6→5)
PE COMPRESSION
$48.04
(-1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 27.4%)
$334.50
(+592%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 5.9, Growth: 27.4%)
$100.00
(+107%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.0, Growth: 27.4%)
$85.00
(+76%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (9x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (6x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 8.71 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.62
Bull Case
$77.99
(+61%)
Analyst growth 44.9%, PE expands to 9.6
Base Case
$70.90
(+47%)
Market implied 44.9%, PE stable at 8.7
Bear Case
$33.28
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 22, 2026 9:36 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:36 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:36 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is REPX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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