Riley Exploration Permian (REPX) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
REPX - Riley Exploration Permian, Inc.
$43.51
0.31 (0.72%)
▲
5d:
+3.37%
30d:
+21.16%
90d:
+26.01%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: REPX shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: REPX shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$82.45
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$51.19
15.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 5.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: REPX is currently trading at $43.51, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $35.20 to $41.15. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 5.3) is in line with its historical norms (5.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.7% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, REPX is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $43.90. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: REPX scores 0/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, REPX is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $43.90. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: REPX scores 0/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$35.20 -
$41.15
Company Quality Score
30/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
20.0%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+5.7% above its trading range)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (0/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($46.00)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.7% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 30/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$35.20 -
$41.15
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$37.56
Resistance Level
$43.90
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
5.34
Wall Street Target
$46.00
(+5.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
94.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
185.4%
Profit Margin
24.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.7% premium
PE vs Historical
5.3 vs 5.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$43.81
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$44.12
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$44.43
(+2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 5→5)
PE COMPRESSION
$43.23
(-1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 27.4%)
$339.73
(+681%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 5.3, Growth: 27.4%)
$90.01
(+107%)
Bear:
(PE: 4.5, Growth: 27.4%)
$76.51
(+76%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (8x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (5x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 7.69 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.62
Bull Case
$68.84
(+58%)
Analyst growth 44.9%, PE expands to 8.5
Base Case
$62.59
(+44%)
Market implied 44.9%, PE stable at 7.7
Bear Case
$29.38
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 6.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 12, 2026 12:10 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:10 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:10 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is REPX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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