Riley Exploration Permian (REPX) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
REPX - Riley Exploration Permian, Inc.
$41.06
1.05 (2.62%)
â˛
5d:
-1.51%
30d:
+4.13%
90d:
+26.3%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: REPX is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -1.1% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: REPX is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -1.1% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$82.45
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$51.19
19.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 5.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: REPX is currently trading at $41.06, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $38.94 to $43.10. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 5.0) is in line with its historical norms (5.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 185.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, REPX is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $39.35, while resistance sits at $44.06.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 40/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $46.00 (+12.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, REPX is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $39.35, while resistance sits at $44.06.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 40/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $46.00 (+12.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$38.94 -
$43.10
Company Quality Score
51/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
70.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($46.00)
- WARNING: Composite score 50/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$38.94 -
$43.10
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$39.35
Resistance Level
$44.06
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
5.04
Wall Street Target
$46.00
(+12.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
94.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
185.4%
Profit Margin
24.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
5.0 vs 5.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$40.61
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$40.16
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$39.72
(-3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 5â5)
$40.96
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 27.4%)
$343.60
(+737%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 5.0, Growth: 27.4%)
$84.94
(+107%)
Bear:
(PE: 4.3, Growth: 27.4%)
$72.20
(+76%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (7x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (5x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 7.09 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.64
Bull Case
$63.54
(+55%)
Analyst growth 44.4%, PE expands to 7.8
Base Case
$57.76
(+41%)
Market implied 44.4%, PE stable at 7.1
Bear Case
$27.21
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 6.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 5.0 to 5.2
Stabilization Target:
$42.34
(+3.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+3.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 02, 2026 3:06 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:06 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:06 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is REPX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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