REPX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
REPX - Riley Exploration Permian, Inc.
$38.17
0.20 (0.53%)
▲
5d:
+5.65%
30d:
+5.94%
90d:
+1.73%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: REPX shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: REPX shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$82.10
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$50.98
25.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 5.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: REPX is currently trading at $38.17, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $33.79 to $36.72. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 4.4) compared to its historical average (5.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 185.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, REPX is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $38.77. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: REPX scores 0/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $48.50 (+35.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, REPX is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $38.77. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: REPX scores 0/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $48.50 (+35.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$33.79 -
$36.72
Company Quality Score
27/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
28.6%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (0/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 35.1% below Wall St target ($48.50)
- WARNING: Composite score 26/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$33.79 -
$36.72
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$34.40
Resistance Level
$38.78
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
4.43
Wall Street Target
$48.50
(+35.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
94.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
185.4%
Profit Margin
24.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
4.4 vs 5.2
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$33.93
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$32.07
(-11%)
3-Year Target
$30.30
(-16%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 4→5)
$35.58
(-1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 26.0%)
$328.36
(+814%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 4.4, Growth: 26.0%)
$71.89
(+100%)
Bear:
(PE: 3.8, Growth: 26.0%)
$61.10
(+70%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (6x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (4x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 6.45 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.66
Bull Case
$57.55
(+51%)
Analyst growth 43.3%, PE expands to 7.1
Base Case
$52.32
(+37%)
Market implied 43.3%, PE stable at 6.5
Bear Case
$24.83
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 5.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 4.4 to 5.2
Stabilization Target:
$42.16
(+17.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+17.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 22, 2026 9:26 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:26 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:26 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is REPX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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