REPX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
REPX - Riley Exploration Permian, Inc.
$34.27
0.75 (2.24%)
▲
5d:
-3.41%
30d:
+6.03%
90d:
-5.25%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
1d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: REPX shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: REPX shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$84.86
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$52.69
35.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 5.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: REPX is currently trading at $34.27, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $32.75 to $34.99. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 4.2) compared to its historical average (5.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 7.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 686.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, REPX is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $32.52, while resistance sits at $37.34.
Market Sentiment: REPX has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $48.50 (+41.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, REPX is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $32.52, while resistance sits at $37.34.
Market Sentiment: REPX has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $48.50 (+41.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$32.75 -
$34.99
Company Quality Score
44/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
50.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 41.5% below Wall St target ($48.50)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$32.75 -
$34.99
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$32.52
Resistance Level
$37.34
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
4.17
Wall Street Target
$48.50
(+41.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
11.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
686.0%
Profit Margin
15.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-7.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
4.2 vs 5.3
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-7.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$31.63
(-8%)
2-Year Target
$29.20
(-15%)
3-Year Target
$26.95
(-21%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 4→5)
$34.27
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 32.5%)
$396.73
(+1058%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 4.2, Growth: 32.5%)
$79.77
(+133%)
Bear:
(PE: 3.5, Growth: 32.5%)
$67.80
(+98%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (4x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 11.68 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.87
Bull Case
$73.74
(+115%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 12.9
Base Case
$67.04
(+96%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 11.7
Bear Case
$22.79
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 4.2 to 5.3
Stabilization Target:
$43.58
(+27.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+27.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 02, 2026 7:15 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:15 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:15 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is REPX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Corey Neil Riley
SELL
3500 shares
2026-02-12
Bobby Riley
SELL
12500 shares
2026-02-10
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