Simmons First National (SFNC) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SFNC - Simmons First National Corp
$23.19
0.06 (0.26%)
▲
5d:
+0.91%
30d:
-2.73%
90d:
+4.51%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 15, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: SFNC is fairly valued with market pricing in 1.0% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: SFNC is fairly valued with market pricing in 1.0% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$32.09
Based on 7.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$19.93
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SFNC is currently trading at $23.19, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $22.75 to $23.83. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.2) is in line with its historical norms (9.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.0% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SFNC is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $22.16, while resistance sits at $23.99.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 59/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $25.79 (+11.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SFNC is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $22.16, while resistance sits at $23.99.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 59/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $25.79 (+11.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$22.75 -
$23.83
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
78.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (59/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($25.79)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.0% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (59/100) — watch for confirmation
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$22.75 -
$23.83
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$22.17
Resistance Level
$23.99
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.19
Wall Street Target
$25.79
(+11.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
14.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
7.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.0% premium
PE vs Historical
10.2 vs 9.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$23.42
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$23.66
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$23.89
(+3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$23.22
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 10.7%)
$62.29
(+169%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.2, Growth: 10.7%)
$31.46
(+36%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.7, Growth: 10.7%)
$26.74
(+15%)
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 13, 2026 2:20 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:20 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:20 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SFNC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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