Simmons First National (SFNC) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SFNC - Simmons First National Corp
$22.90
0.17 (0.75%)
▲
5d:
-1.42%
30d:
+1.01%
90d:
+0.57%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 15, 2026
11d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: SFNC shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: SFNC shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$34.60
Based on 8.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$21.49
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SFNC is currently trading at $22.90, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $22.58 to $23.17. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.8) is in line with its historical norms (9.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 7.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SFNC is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $23.35. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: SFNC scores 74/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $25.93 (+13.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SFNC is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $23.35. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: SFNC scores 74/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $25.93 (+13.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$22.58 -
$23.17
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
81.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (74/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($25.93)
- CAUTION: Bottoming setup, but lagging the sector by 14% over 20 days — wait for relative strength
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$22.58 -
$23.17
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$22.09
Resistance Level
$23.35
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.85
Wall Street Target
$25.93
(+13.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
14.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
7.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.9 vs 9.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$22.88
(0%)
2-Year Target
$22.85
(0%)
3-Year Target
$22.83
(0%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→10)
$22.94
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 13.1%)
$68.68
(+200%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.9, Growth: 13.1%)
$33.17
(+45%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.4, Growth: 13.1%)
$28.19
(+23%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.9 to 9.9
Stabilization Target:
$23.01
(+0.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+0.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 03, 2026 4:14 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:14 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:14 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SFNC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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