Simmons First National (SFNC) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SFNC - Simmons First National Corp
$23.31
-0.01 (-0.04%)
▼
5d:
+5.62%
30d:
+1.08%
90d:
+1.48%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 15, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: SFNC shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: SFNC shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$32.63
Based on 7.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$20.26
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SFNC is currently trading at $23.31, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $22.30 to $23.06. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.1) is in line with its historical norms (9.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.8% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SFNC is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $23.48. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: SFNC scores 35/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $26.07 (+11.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SFNC is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $23.48. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: SFNC scores 35/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $26.07 (+11.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$22.30 -
$23.06
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
27.1%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (35/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($26.07)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.8% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 52/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$22.30 -
$23.06
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$21.78
Resistance Level
$23.48
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Oct 23, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.12
Wall Street Target
$26.07
(+11.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
14.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
7.0%
Profit Margin
28.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.8% premium
PE vs Historical
10.1 vs 9.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$23.50
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$23.68
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$23.87
(+2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$23.36
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 10.9%)
$62.35
(+168%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.1, Growth: 10.9%)
$31.76
(+36%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.6, Growth: 10.9%)
$26.99
(+16%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.08 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.93
Bull Case
$30.63
(+31%)
Analyst growth 19.4%, PE expands to 13.3
Base Case
$27.84
(+19%)
Market implied 19.4%, PE stable at 12.1
Bear Case
$15.86
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 23, 2026 8:08 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:08 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:08 PM
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| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is SFNC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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