SFNC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SFNC - Simmons First National Corp
$23.86
0.27 (1.14%)
▲
5d:
+3.87%
30d:
+4.47%
90d:
+12.39%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 15, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: SFNC is fairly valued with market pricing in 3.5% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: SFNC is fairly valued with market pricing in 3.5% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$28.44
Based on 5.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$17.66
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SFNC is currently trading at $23.86, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $22.59 to $23.27. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 10.8) compared to its historical average (9.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.5% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SFNC is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $23.98. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: SFNC has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SFNC is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $23.98. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: SFNC has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$22.59 -
$23.27
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
58.1%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($25.00)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 3.5% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$22.59 -
$23.27
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$22.40
Resistance Level
$23.99
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.85
Wall Street Target
$25.00
(+4.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
14.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
7.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.5% premium
PE vs Historical
10.9 vs 9.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$24.70
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$25.56
(+7%)
3-Year Target
$26.45
(+11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$23.90
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 7.4%)
$56.51
(+137%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.8, Growth: 7.4%)
$29.56
(+24%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.2, Growth: 7.4%)
$25.13
(+5%)
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 04, 2026 5:34 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:34 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:34 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SFNC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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