SM Energy (SM) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SM - SM Energy Company
$34.68
-0.38 (-1.08%)
▼
5d:
+2.27%
30d:
-9.43%
90d:
+31.61%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 02, 2026
30d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: SM shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: SM shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$45.30
Based on 3.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$28.13
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 4.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SM is currently trading at $34.68, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $34.44 to $38.30. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 4.6) is in line with its historical norms (4.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 153.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SM is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $32.55, while resistance sits at $37.31.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 54/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $43.18 (+23.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SM is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $32.55, while resistance sits at $37.31.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 54/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $43.18 (+23.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$34.44 -
$38.30
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
Protect Your Profits
Holding SM? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (54/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 23.2% below Wall St target ($43.18)
- WARNING: Composite score 52/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$34.44 -
$38.30
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$32.55
Resistance Level
$37.32
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
4.56
Wall Street Target
$43.18
(+23.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
176.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
153.9%
Profit Margin
20.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
4.6 vs 4.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$34.22
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$33.40
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$32.60
(-7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 5→5)
$35.03
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 3.5%)
$173.78
(+396%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 4.6, Growth: 3.5%)
$38.84
(+11%)
Bear:
(PE: 3.9, Growth: 3.5%)
$33.01
(-6%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (6x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (5x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 5.87 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.75
Bull Case
$49.70
(+42%)
Analyst growth 33.7%, PE expands to 6.5
Base Case
$45.18
(+29%)
Market implied 33.7%, PE stable at 5.9
Bear Case
$22.97
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 5.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 4.6 to 4.9
Stabilization Target:
$37.68
(+7.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+7.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 02, 2026 10:22 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:22 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:22 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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