SM Energy (SM) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$31.16
+1.64 (+5.56%)
▲
5d:
+0.32%
30d:
-19.15%
90d:
-3.89%
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70/30 Portfolio Builder
Earnings: Nov 03, 2026
0d
Protect SM Gains
Updated Nov 11, 12:00 AM ET
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
HOLD
LOW Confidence (95%)
Quality Score
57/100
Position
OVERSOLD
30-Day Fair Range
$32.79 – $40.00
Position: OVERSOLD
Forward P/E & Valuation
3.7x
CHEAP
vs 4.8x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$45.33
+45.5% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$27.84 / $40.44
Trend: Strong Uptrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 HOLD: SM shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Smart Money Accumulation
Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →
Signal fired Nov 2, 2026 at $37.63 · last confirmed Nov 11, 2026
Strength: 6.7/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$50.39
Based on 4.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$31.29
0.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 4.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SM is currently trading at $31.16, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $32.79 to $40.00. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 3.7) compared to its historical average (4.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 8.8% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SM is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $27.84, while resistance sits at $40.44. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 5.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: SM scores 68/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $45.33 (+45.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SM is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $27.84, while resistance sits at $40.44. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 5.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: SM scores 68/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $45.33 (+45.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$32.79 -
$40.00
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
95.2%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$32.79 -
$40.00
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support Level
$27.84
Resistance Level
$40.44
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Nov 11, 2026
Protect Your Profits
Holding SM? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanQuantitative Signal Breakdown
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (68/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+5.6%)
- BULLISH: Trading 45.5% below Wall St target ($45.33)
- CAUTION: Bottoming setup, but lagging the sector by 10% over 20 days — wait for relative strength
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
3.67
Wall Street Target
$45.33
(+45.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
161.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-71.1%
Profit Margin
15.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-8.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
3.7 vs 4.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-8.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$28.42
(-9%)
2-Year Target
$25.92
(-17%)
3-Year Target
$23.64
(-24%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 4→5)
$30.89
(-1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 4.7%)
$193.67
(+522%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 3.7, Growth: 4.7%)
$35.81
(+15%)
Bear:
(PE: 3.1, Growth: 4.7%)
$30.44
(-2%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (6x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (4x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 6.31 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.61
Bull Case
$58.91
(+100%)
Analyst growth 84.0%, PE expands to 6.9
Base Case
$53.56
(+81%)
Market implied 84.0%, PE stable at 6.3
Bear Case
$19.79
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 5.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 3.7 to 4.8
Stabilization Target:
$40.73
(+30.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+30.7%
Share SM Analysis
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (SM)
Bullish
2 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bearish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Nov 11, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
StockTwits shows bullish sentiment towards $SM with one user expressing interest.
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 11, 2026 4:10 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:10 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:10 PM
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Technical Signals Check
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Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
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