SM Energy (SM) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SM - SM Energy Company
$38.54
-0.07 (-0.18%)
âŧ
5d:
+2.72%
30d:
+12.33%
90d:
+16.12%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 03, 2026
11d
Smart Money Distribution
Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →
Signal fired Oct 19, 2026 at $39.04 · last confirmed Oct 19, 2026
Strength: 7.5/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: SM is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -1.9% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: SM is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -1.9% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$50.71
Based on 4.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$31.49
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 4.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SM is currently trading at $38.54, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $34.46 to $38.71. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 4.6) is in line with its historical norms (4.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 153.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SM is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $36.64, while resistance sits at $39.83.
Market Sentiment: SM scores 36/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $46.11 (+19.4%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SM is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $36.64, while resistance sits at $39.83.
Market Sentiment: SM scores 36/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $46.11 (+19.4%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$34.46 -
$38.71
Company Quality Score
48/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
40.5%
Protect Your Profits
Holding SM? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (36/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($46.11)
- WARNING: Composite score 48/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$34.46 -
$38.71
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$36.64
Resistance Level
$39.83
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
4.62
Wall Street Target
$46.11
(+19.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
176.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
153.9%
Profit Margin
20.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
4.6 vs 4.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$37.88
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$37.16
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$36.45
(-6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 5â5)
$38.69
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 4.7%)
$190.75
(+394%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 4.6, Growth: 4.7%)
$44.33
(+15%)
Bear:
(PE: 3.9, Growth: 4.7%)
$37.68
(-2%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (7x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (5x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 6.89 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.64
Bull Case
$63.38
(+64%)
Analyst growth 48.3%, PE expands to 7.6
Base Case
$57.62
(+49%)
Market implied 48.3%, PE stable at 6.9
Bear Case
$26.42
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 5.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 4.6 to 4.9
Stabilization Target:
$40.99
(+6.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+6.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 22, 2026 3:28 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:28 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:28 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced SM Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's SM price and gamma walls.
