SM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SM - SM Energy Company
$29.89
2.08 (7.48%)
▲
5d:
+13.43%
30d:
-8.96%
90d:
+5.32%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
22d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 7.2/10
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1 traders called SM this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: SM trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -7.8% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: SM trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -7.8% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$50.02
Based on 5.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$31.06
3.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 5.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SM is currently trading at $29.89, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $26.31 to $31.02. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 3.9) compared to its historical average (5.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 7.8% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SM is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $30.06. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 7.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: SM has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $39.00 (+30.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SM is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $30.06. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 7.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: SM has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $39.00 (+30.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$26.31 -
$31.02
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
81.0%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+7.5%)
- BULLISH: Trading 30.5% below Wall St target ($39.00)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$26.31 -
$31.02
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$30.06
Resistance Level
$34.69
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
3.93
Wall Street Target
$39.00
(+30.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
73.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-42.3%
Profit Margin
3.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-7.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
3.9 vs 5.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-7.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$27.56
(-8%)
2-Year Target
$25.41
(-15%)
3-Year Target
$23.43
(-22%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 4→5)
$29.79
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 7.3%)
$204.42
(+584%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 3.9, Growth: 7.3%)
$36.90
(+24%)
Bear:
(PE: 3.3, Growth: 7.3%)
$31.37
(+5%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (4x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.27 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.31
Bull Case
$62.35
(+124%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 13.5
Base Case
$56.68
(+104%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 12.3
Bear Case
$19.27
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 3.9 to 5.0
Stabilization Target:
$38.01
(+27.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+27.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 13, 2026 5:39 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:39 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:39 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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