TXNM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TXNM - TXNM Energy, Inc.
$57.58
0.22 (0.37%)
▲
5d:
+1.22%
30d:
-3.19%
90d:
-1.58%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 07, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: TXNM shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: TXNM shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$86.42
Based on 6.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$53.66
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 18.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TXNM is currently trading at $57.58, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $57.47 to $59.59. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 17.4) is in line with its historical norms (18.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.6% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TXNM is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $57.19. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: TXNM has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TXNM is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $57.19. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: TXNM has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$57.47 -
$59.59
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
52.4%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($61.15)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$57.47 -
$59.59
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$57.19
Resistance Level
$59.53
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
17.40
Wall Street Target
$61.15
(+6.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-68.7%
Profit Margin
6.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
17.4 vs 18.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$55.87
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$54.42
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$53.00
(-8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 17→19)
$57.25
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 9.8%)
$95.04
(+66%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 17.4, Growth: 9.8%)
$75.95
(+32%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.8, Growth: 9.8%)
$64.56
(+13%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (41x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (17x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 40.67 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.41
Bull Case
$126.17
(+120%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 44.7
Base Case
$114.70
(+100%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 40.7
Bear Case
$39.00
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 34.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 17.4 to 18.8
Stabilization Target:
$61.96
(+8.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+8.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 24, 2026 12:50 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:50 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:50 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TXNM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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