TXNM Energy (TXNM) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TXNM - TXNM Energy, Inc.
$58.25
-0.48 (-0.82%)
âŧ
5d:
-0.46%
30d:
+0.14%
90d:
+0.15%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 30, 2026
6d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: TXNM is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -0.6% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: TXNM is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -0.6% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$90.59
Based on 8.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$56.25
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 18.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TXNM is currently trading at $58.25, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $58.14 to $58.65. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 18.1) is in line with its historical norms (18.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 190.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TXNM is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $58.28. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 49/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TXNM is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $58.28. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 49/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$58.14 -
$58.65
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
67.6%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (49/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($60.70)
- WARNING: Composite score 50/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$58.14 -
$58.65
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$58.29
Resistance Level
$59.00
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
18.10
Wall Street Target
$60.70
(+3.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
190.9%
Profit Margin
8.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
18.1 vs 18.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$58.38
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$58.03
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$57.68
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 18â18)
$58.63
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 13.5%)
$94.20
(+60%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 18.1, Growth: 13.5%)
$85.85
(+46%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.4, Growth: 13.5%)
$72.97
(+24%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (34x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (18x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 33.61 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.74
Bull Case
$119.98
(+104%)
Analyst growth 86.5%, PE expands to 37.0
Base Case
$109.07
(+86%)
Market implied 86.5%, PE stable at 33.6
Bear Case
$39.77
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 28.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 18.1 to 18.4
Stabilization Target:
$59.70
(+1.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+1.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 23, 2026 1:05 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:05 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:05 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TXNM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
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