TXNM Energy (TXNM) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TXNM - TXNM Energy, Inc.
$57.67
-0.19 (-0.33%)
▼
5d:
-0.81%
30d:
+0.59%
90d:
+0.93%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 30, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: TXNM shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: TXNM shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$92.33
Based on 9.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$57.33
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 18.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TXNM is currently trading at $57.67, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $57.31 to $57.85. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 17.7) is in line with its historical norms (18.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 190.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TXNM is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $57.46. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 49/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TXNM is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $57.46. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 49/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$57.31 -
$57.85
Company Quality Score
45/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
46.2%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (49/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($60.70)
- WARNING: Composite score 45/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$57.31 -
$57.85
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$57.46
Resistance Level
$58.36
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
17.69
Wall Street Target
$60.70
(+5.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
190.9%
Profit Margin
8.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
17.7 vs 18.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$56.80
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$55.95
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$55.11
(-4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 18→19)
$57.63
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 13.9%)
$97.27
(+69%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 17.7, Growth: 13.9%)
$85.32
(+48%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.0, Growth: 13.9%)
$72.52
(+26%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (32x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (18x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 31.62 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.83
Bull Case
$113.37
(+97%)
Analyst growth 78.1%, PE expands to 34.8
Base Case
$103.06
(+79%)
Market implied 78.1%, PE stable at 31.6
Bear Case
$39.34
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 26.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 17.7 to 18.5
Stabilization Target:
$60.30
(+4.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+4.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 12, 2026 9:44 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:44 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:44 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TXNM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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