TXNM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TXNM - TXNM Energy, Inc.
$57.57
-0.35 (-0.60%)
▼
5d:
-1.01%
30d:
+1.11%
90d:
-2.75%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 07, 2026
3d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: TXNM shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: TXNM shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$86.11
Based on 7.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$53.47
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 18.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TXNM is currently trading at $57.57, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $56.78 to $57.99. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 17.8) is in line with its historical norms (18.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.5% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TXNM is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $57.52. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: TXNM has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TXNM is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $57.52. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: TXNM has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$56.78 -
$57.99
Company Quality Score
48/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
78.6%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($60.79)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$56.78 -
$57.99
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$57.52
Resistance Level
$58.55
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
17.81
Wall Street Target
$60.79
(+5.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-68.7%
Profit Margin
6.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
17.8 vs 18.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$57.05
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$56.20
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$55.35
(-4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 18→19)
$57.80
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 10.7%)
$91.32
(+58%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 17.8, Growth: 10.7%)
$78.47
(+36%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.1, Growth: 10.7%)
$66.70
(+15%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (41x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (18x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 41.11 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.41
Bull Case
$127.53
(+120%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 45.2
Base Case
$115.94
(+100%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 41.1
Bear Case
$39.42
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 35.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 17.8 to 18.6
Stabilization Target:
$60.48
(+4.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+4.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 3:31 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:31 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:31 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TXNM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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