UFP Industries (UFPI) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
UFPI - UFP Industries, Inc. Common Stock
$77.15
0.07 (0.09%)
▲
5d:
-2.94%
30d:
-6.95%
90d:
-11.62%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: UFPI shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: UFPI shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$159.74
Based on 12.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$99.19
22.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: UFPI is currently trading at $77.15, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $78.78 to $84.57. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 14.0) compared to its historical average (15.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.1% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UFPI is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $75.19. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 48/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $102.60 (+33.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UFPI is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $75.19. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 48/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $102.60 (+33.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$78.78 -
$84.57
Company Quality Score
49/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (48/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 33.0% below Wall St target ($102.60)
- WARNING: Composite score 49/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$78.78 -
$84.57
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$75.20
Resistance Level
$83.25
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.98
Wall Street Target
$102.60
(+33.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
2.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-13.0%
Profit Margin
4.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
14.0 vs 15.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$73.99
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$70.95
(-8%)
3-Year Target
$68.04
(-12%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→16)
$77.41
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 21.8%)
$203.41
(+164%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.0, Growth: 21.8%)
$139.36
(+81%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.9, Growth: 21.8%)
$118.46
(+54%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (18x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 17.64 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.37
Bull Case
$107.10
(+39%)
Analyst growth 26.3%, PE expands to 19.4
Base Case
$97.36
(+26%)
Market implied 26.3%, PE stable at 17.6
Bear Case
$52.41
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 15.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 14.0 to 15.9
Stabilization Target:
$87.77
(+13.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+13.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 03, 2026 2:36 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:36 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:36 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is UFPI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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