UFP Industries (UFPI) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
UFPI - UFP Industries, Inc. Common Stock
$83.72
3.73 (4.66%)
▲
5d:
+8.12%
30d:
+2.37%
90d:
-4.8%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 28, 2026
4d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: UFPI shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: UFPI shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$156.87
Based on 12.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$97.40
14.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: UFPI is currently trading at $83.72, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $76.50 to $81.14. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 15.2) is in line with its historical norms (15.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.1% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UFPI is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $83.97. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.7% recently.
Market Sentiment: UFPI scores 30/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $101.80 (+21.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UFPI is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $83.97. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.7% recently.
Market Sentiment: UFPI scores 30/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $101.80 (+21.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$76.50 -
$81.14
Company Quality Score
45/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
33.3%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (30/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+4.7%)
- BULLISH: Trading 21.6% below Wall St target ($101.80)
- WARNING: Composite score 45/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$76.50 -
$81.14
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$73.72
Resistance Level
$83.97
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.25
Wall Street Target
$101.80
(+21.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
2.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-13.0%
Profit Margin
4.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
15.3 vs 15.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$82.80
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$81.89
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$80.99
(-3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→16)
$83.91
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 21.5%)
$195.37
(+133%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.2, Growth: 21.5%)
$150.01
(+79%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.0, Growth: 21.5%)
$127.51
(+52%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (18x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (15x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 18.26 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.38
Bull Case
$110.29
(+32%)
Analyst growth 25.3%, PE expands to 20.1
Base Case
$100.26
(+20%)
Market implied 25.3%, PE stable at 18.3
Bear Case
$54.39
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 15.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 15.2 to 15.8
Stabilization Target:
$86.74
(+3.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+3.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 23, 2026 3:18 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:18 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:18 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is UFPI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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