Upbound Group (UPBD) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
UPBD - Upbound Group, Inc. Common Stock
$17.37
1.20 (7.42%)
▲
5d:
+5.59%
30d:
+8.63%
90d:
-15.1%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 29, 2026
5d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: UPBD shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: UPBD shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$26.56
Based on 7.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$16.49
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 4.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: UPBD is currently trading at $17.37, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $15.44 to $17.08. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 3.8) is in line with its historical norms (4.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 42.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UPBD is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $17.45. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 7.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: UPBD scores 28/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $27.50 (+58.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UPBD is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $17.45. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 7.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: UPBD scores 28/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $27.50 (+58.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$15.44 -
$17.08
Company Quality Score
41/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
33.3%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (28/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+7.4%)
- BULLISH: Trading 58.3% below Wall St target ($27.50)
- WARNING: Composite score 41/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$15.44 -
$17.08
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$15.15
Resistance Level
$17.45
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
3.76
Wall Street Target
$27.50
(+58.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
0.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
42.3%
Profit Margin
1.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
3.8 vs 4.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$17.02
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$16.68
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$16.35
(-6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 4→4)
$17.39
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 11.1%)
$125.68
(+624%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 3.8, Growth: 11.1%)
$23.79
(+37%)
Bear:
(PE: 3.2, Growth: 11.1%)
$20.22
(+16%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (4x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 10.57 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.53
Bull Case
$35.57
(+105%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 11.6
Base Case
$32.34
(+86%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 10.6
Bear Case
$11.00
(-37%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 3.8 to 4.0
Stabilization Target:
$18.48
(+6.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+6.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 23, 2026 1:30 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:30 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:30 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is UPBD showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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