UPBD Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
UPBD - Upbound Group, Inc. Common Stock
$21.15
-0.01 (-0.05%)
▼
5d:
+3.02%
30d:
+16.98%
90d:
+15.01%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
15d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: UPBD shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.6% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: UPBD shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.6% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$28.74
Based on 8.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$17.84
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 4.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: UPBD is currently trading at $21.15, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $18.23 to $20.41. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 4.5) compared to its historical average (4.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.6% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UPBD is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $19.64. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: UPBD has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $28.64 (+35.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UPBD is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $19.64. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: UPBD has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $28.64 (+35.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$18.23 -
$20.41
Company Quality Score
60/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
62.9%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 35.4% below Wall St target ($28.64)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 3.6% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$18.23 -
$20.41
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$17.85
Resistance Level
$19.64
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
4.45
Wall Street Target
$28.64
(+35.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
3.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
45.2%
Profit Margin
1.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.6% premium
PE vs Historical
4.5 vs 4.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$21.91
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$22.70
(+7%)
3-Year Target
$23.52
(+11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 4→4)
PE COMPRESSION
$21.15
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 13.3%)
$150.52
(+612%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 4.4, Growth: 13.3%)
$30.74
(+45%)
Bear:
(PE: 3.8, Growth: 13.3%)
$26.13
(+24%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (15x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (4x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 14.69 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.44
Bull Case
$46.55
(+120%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 16.2
Base Case
$42.32
(+100%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 14.7
Bear Case
$14.39
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 14, 2026 3:07 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:07 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:07 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is UPBD showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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