UPBD Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
UPBD - Upbound Group, Inc. Common Stock
$18.80
0.26 (1.40%)
▲
5d:
-4.18%
30d:
-10.82%
90d:
+6.21%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: UPBD shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: UPBD shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$26.69
Based on 7.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$16.57
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 4.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: UPBD is currently trading at $18.80, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $19.17 to $21.43. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 4.0) is in line with its historical norms (4.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 42.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UPBD is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $18.23, while resistance sits at $19.75.
Market Sentiment: UPBD scores 61/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $28.25 (+52.4%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UPBD is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $18.23, while resistance sits at $19.75.
Market Sentiment: UPBD scores 61/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $28.25 (+52.4%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$19.17 -
$21.43
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
90.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (61/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 52.4% below Wall St target ($28.25)
- WARNING: Composite score 50/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$19.17 -
$21.43
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$18.23
Resistance Level
$19.75
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
4.05
Wall Street Target
$28.25
(+52.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
0.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
42.3%
Profit Margin
1.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
4.1 vs 4.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$18.52
(0%)
2-Year Target
$18.50
(0%)
3-Year Target
$18.48
(0%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 4→4)
$18.73
(+1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 10.6%)
$124.38
(+571%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 4.0, Growth: 10.6%)
$25.07
(+35%)
Bear:
(PE: 3.4, Growth: 10.6%)
$21.31
(+15%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (4x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.42 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.57
Bull Case
$42.90
(+128%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 13.7
Base Case
$39.00
(+107%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 12.4
Bear Case
$13.26
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 4.0 to 4.1
Stabilization Target:
$18.79
(+1.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+1.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 23, 2026 9:21 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:21 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:21 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is UPBD showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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