Upbound Group (UPBD) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
UPBD - Upbound Group, Inc. Common Stock
$15.91
0.23 (1.47%)
▲
5d:
-1.12%
30d:
-15.37%
90d:
-22.5%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 29, 2026
25d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: UPBD shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: UPBD shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$26.57
Based on 7.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$16.50
3.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 4.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: UPBD is currently trading at $15.91, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $16.90 to $19.11. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 3.4) compared to its historical average (4.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 42.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UPBD is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $15.13, while resistance sits at $17.38.
Market Sentiment: UPBD scores 66/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $28.25 (+77.6%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UPBD is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $15.13, while resistance sits at $17.38.
Market Sentiment: UPBD scores 66/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $28.25 (+77.6%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$16.90 -
$19.11
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
90.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (66/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 77.6% below Wall St target ($28.25)
- CAUTION: Bottoming setup, but lagging the sector by 29% over 20 days — wait for relative strength
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$16.90 -
$19.11
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$15.13
Resistance Level
$17.38
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
3.44
Wall Street Target
$28.25
(+77.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
0.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
42.3%
Profit Margin
1.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
3.4 vs 4.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$15.10
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$14.33
(-10%)
3-Year Target
$13.60
(-15%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 3→4)
$15.80
(-1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 11.1%)
$129.29
(+713%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 3.4, Growth: 11.1%)
$21.82
(+37%)
Bear:
(PE: 2.9, Growth: 11.1%)
$18.54
(+17%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (10x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (3x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 10.18 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.54
Bull Case
$34.50
(+117%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 11.2
Base Case
$31.36
(+97%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 10.2
Bear Case
$10.66
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 3.4 to 4.0
Stabilization Target:
$18.49
(+16.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+16.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 03, 2026 12:24 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:24 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:24 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is UPBD showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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